Goldman Sachs has evaluated that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz may not fully return to pre-war levels. The bank predicts that in the long term, flows could stabilize at about 70% of previous levels.
According to the institution, Gulf countries increasingly using alternative export routes is shaping this outlook. This indicates a reduced dependence on a single route for oil transportation.
Recovery May Take Until Next Month
Analysts estimate that the recovery process in current oil flows could continue until the end of next month. Crude oil production in the region is expected to approach pre-war levels by October.
Before the war, approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products were transported daily through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, about 1.3 million barrels of oil are shipped daily through the strait, with an additional flow of around 1.6 million barrels daily via the Gulf of Oman route.
Share of Alternative Routes Has Increased
Data shows that approximately 7.5 million barrels of oil are transported daily through alternative export points such as Yanbu, Fujairah, and Ceyhan. This indicates that shipments in the region are being reshaped with alternative routes.
Goldman Sachs also noted that maritime transport capacity is not seen as a limiting factor for the recovery of oil flows. However, some shipowners continue to be cautious about passing through the Strait of Hormuz due to security concerns.
The assessment highlights that while the Strait of Hormuz remains crucial to global energy flows, the shipment patterns are changing with alternative routes. The pace of normalization in oil flows will be monitored in the coming weeks, depending on production and transport choices in the region.
