A complete collapse of CUSMA could lead to job losses in Canada and the United States in 2027. A new economic analysis estimates that there could be 102,000 fewer jobs in Canada and 214,000 fewer in the United States.
This scenario, outlined as trade talks between Canada and the United States continue, points to the potential impact of the agreement's termination on the Canadian economy.
Ontario and Quebec among the regions that could be most affected
Ontario and Quebec are among the provinces that could be most affected if CUSMA completely collapses. The automotive, metals, machinery, electronics and chemicals sectors are also listed among the areas facing the greatest risk.
By contrast, an estimated 98,000 additional jobs could be created in Canada if CUSMA is successfully maintained.
Review process does not mean automatic termination
A failed review process in 2026 does not mean that CUSMA would immediately end automatically.