Uncertainty over Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s political future emerged in a representative YouGov poll conducted in Germany. While 48% of respondents said they did not expect Merz to be in office at the end of December, 31% said he would remain chancellor. The share of undecided respondents was 21%.
The poll results were released ahead of Sunday’s elections in the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin. The data indicate that Merz’s party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), could suffer significant losses in both electoral regions.
The CDU’s electoral performance has weakened
The CDU also suffered a heavy defeat in an election held in Saxony-Anhalt this month. The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) came first with 43.8% of the vote, while the CDU received 17.2%.
The result was seen as a major defeat for the CDU, which had governed the state for decades with changing coalition partners.
The CDU was polling at around 20% in ZDF’s latest survey of Berlin. That figure was below the 28.2% the party secured in the 2023 election. The Left Party, which was leading with 22%, is raising the prospect of a three-party government without the CDU.
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, support for the CDU stood at 6% in the latest polls. This put the party only slightly above the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament. According to ZDF’s latest survey, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) was at 37%, while the anti-immigration AfD stood at 36%.
Debate over Merz within the party
Although local issues are decisive in regional elections, some observers say the CDU’s decline in three state elections this month has been deepened by Merz’s weak performance in office. This has increased pressure within the CDU for Merz to step down.
Senior CDU officials plan to hold an internal meeting on Monday. CDU lawmakers and members of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the party’s Bavarian sister organization, are also expected to meet two days later.
A leadership change in the CDU would not mean that the Bundestag would automatically be dissolved or that a national election would be held. If Merz steps down as a result of pressure within the party, the Bundestag could elect a new chancellor without a nationwide election.