Switzerland’s Federal Council said ending the Schengen and Dublin agreements could have serious consequences for border management and domestic security, in addition to causing economic losses.
In a report published Friday, the Federal Council estimated that Switzerland’s gross domestic product could be up to 3.9% lower in 2035 if the agreements were no longer in place. The annual per capita income loss could reach 1,300 Swiss francs, or more than $1,500.
Cross-border mobility could decline
If Switzerland’s borders with neighboring countries became the Schengen area’s external borders, controls would have to be expanded significantly.
According to the report, the number of cross-border workers between Switzerland and neighboring countries could fall by up to 60%. The food-service and care sectors could be particularly affected, while commuters could lose a total of 422,000 hours on each working day because of border traffic.
Tourism and asylum costs
Leaving the agreements could cause annual losses of between 320 million and 810 million Swiss francs in the tourism sector. Additional asylum-related costs could reach 824 million francs.
The report also said that leaving the agreements could increase the likelihood of up to 170,000 people moving to Switzerland.
Access to security databases
The Federal Council warned that ending the agreements could cost Switzerland access to key European security databases and cooperation mechanisms. Swiss authorities recorded around 40,000 Switzerland-related hits in the Schengen Information System in 2025, the report said.
According to the report, additional spending would not fully compensate for the loss of security capacity provided by the agreements. The Federal Council said the costs of reinstating border controls, operating national databases and maintaining domestic security could not be covered by the savings generated after the agreements ended.
