German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s political future is being debated within the CDU as state elections approach and public support declines. The possibility of replacing Merz with another leader is being discussed, and the debate could intensify after the autumn elections.
Support for Merz falls to a historic low
An ARD poll found that the share of Germans satisfied with Merz’s leadership had fallen to 13 percent. The figure is the lowest level of support recorded for a serving German chancellor in the poll’s roughly 30-year history.
Dissatisfaction with Merz has been linked to concerns about the future of the German economy, as well as doubts about planned reforms to the pension and healthcare systems. Among supporters of the CDU and its coalition partner, the Christian Social Union (CSU), 46 percent favored a change in government leadership, while 48 percent opposed it.
AfD moves into first place ahead of elections
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has become the country’s most popular party with 28 percent support. Merz’s CDU ranked second with roughly 21 percent.
Voters will go to the polls in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6, and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin on Sept. 20. The elections could have critical implications for Merz’s chancellorship. Polls indicate that the AfD could secure an outright majority in Saxony-Anhalt and win the election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Confidence in Merz questioned within CDU leadership
The cabinet changes made by Merz, described as inconsistent, have intensified criticism that he is losing authority within the CDU. Interviews conducted by Der Spiegel with people in CDU leadership circles and those close to the chancellor also pointed to weakening confidence within the party.
Assessments published by the magazine argued that Merz’s position had deteriorated much more rapidly than that of CDU Chancellor Ludwig Erhard before his removal from office in 1966. People who spoke to Der Spiegel said Merz’s authority had eroded within a few days and that expectations were low that he would still be leading the party at the end of the year.
CDU official points to Sept. 21
A senior CDU official who was not named claimed that Merz might have to leave office by Sept. 21 at the latest. The official argued that Merz was unable to communicate with the party and said, “This is over.”
The same official said Merz could resign or be forced to leave office after the elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. CDU leaders, however, are avoiding taking a clear public position on these possibilities.
Wüst considered among potential successors
North Rhine-Westphalia Premier Hendrik Wüst has emerged as one of the possible candidates to replace Merz. Wüst is expected to run for re-election in the spring, but taking over as chancellor could prove difficult at a time when Germany’s political and economic problems are intensifying.
Wüst said on a Funke Media Group podcast that the chancellorship was not currently an option for him. However, he did not completely rule out becoming a candidate for chancellor in the future, saying that someone governing a major state should “never” say never.
Constitutional routes to changing the chancellor
A serving chancellor can be replaced through resignation or a constructive vote of no confidence in the Bundestag. Despite Merz’s low poll results, neither option is considered likely at this stage.
