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- October 22, 202615°
- BIST10011,220-3.08%
- USD49.60+0.05%
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- INTEREST36.00%-1.00
- BITCOIN81,584-2.90%
- October 22, 202615°
Cocoa prices rose 25.5% last month as supply shortfall risk grew
Cocoa prices rose 25.5% last month to $6,771 per ton, extending their rally to a sixth consecutive month. El Niño, drought, energy costs and concerns over production in West Africa increased the likelihood of a supply shortfall in 2026/27.
Cocoa prices rose for a sixth consecutive month. The price of cocoa on the Intercontinental Exchange increased 25.5% last month to $6,771 per ton.
Concerns over agricultural commodity supplies, fueled by climate conditions and geopolitical risks, supported the movement in cocoa prices. Prices began 2026 with sharp declines but resumed their rise in March.
How cocoa prices changed during the year
On the Intercontinental Exchange, cocoa prices fell 31.3% in January and 30.7% in February. They then rose 14.3% in March, 8.2% in April, 9.9% in May, 29.4% in June and 6.3% in July.
Prices fell 48.1% last year as concerns over drought in West Africa eased and the harvest increased. The decline was recorded as the fastest annual drop of all time.
Supply concerns for 2026/27
Daniela Corsini, senior commodities economist at Intesa Sanpaolo, linked the rise in cocoa prices to higher energy costs caused by the war in the Middle East, the effects of climate change and record temperatures caused by El Niño, which negatively affected harvests.
Corsini said supply disruptions in West Africa could worsen in the coming months. She said El Niño could intensify the Harmattan winds affecting the region, increasing pressure on cocoa trees.
Corsini said many analysts had lowered their forecasts for a global surplus in 2026/27, adding that rising demand, particularly in Asia, had raised the possibility of another supply shortfall in the cocoa market.
Oran van Dort, a commodities analyst at Rabobank, also said concerns over 2026/27 production had contributed to the price increase that began at the start of last month. Dort listed slower crop development and flowering in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, along with the risk of El Niño, among the main concerns.
According to Dort, market expectations are largely shaped by the possibility of an El Niño event in the worst-case scenario and expectations of a weak crop. This outlook may have strengthened speculative investors’ expectations that prices will rise further.
Other agricultural commodities also rose
On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat prices rose 21% per bushel last month, while corn prices increased 16%, soybean prices 8.5% and rice prices 9.2%.
On the Intercontinental Exchange, sugar rose 21.5% and cotton increased 13.9% on a per-pound basis. Coffee prices fell 1%. Forecasts of increased rainfall in Brazil contributed to the decline in coffee prices.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine increased risks to the grain trade in the Black Sea. The near-standstill in grain loading operations and the closure of ports following the attacks intensified concerns over wheat supplies.
El Niño, dry weather conditions and geopolitical risks supported corn prices. In addition to the expected decline in corn production in Brazil and yields in the United States, rising oil prices also contributed to the increase in corn prices.
Strong Chinese demand for soybeans and forecasts of lower production in South America pushed soybean prices higher. Irregular weather conditions and below-normal monsoon rainfall in producer countries across Asia, particularly India, increased concerns over rice yields and supplies.
Rising oil prices also supported sugar prices. Because sugarcane is used to produce ethanol, changes in oil prices make producers’ choice between sugar and ethanol production more sensitive.
Hot and dry conditions continue in the cotton-producing regions of the United States, while approximately 60% of global corn production is used in industrial applications.
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