Provisional official results from the state parliament election in Saxony-Anhalt, in eastern Germany, showed the AfD finishing first with 43.8 percent of the vote. Turnout also rose to 77.8 percent, exceeding the 60.3 percent recorded in 2021.
The AfD, classified by Saxony-Anhalt’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution as an “established far-right organization,” won 39 seats in the 83-seat state parliament. The party failed to reach the 42 seats required for an absolute majority.
CDU falls to second place
The CDU, the party of the incumbent state premier, came second after its vote share fell to 17.2 percent, roughly half its 2021 result. The SPD won 9.3 percent, the Greens 8.9 percent, the Left Party 8.6 percent, and the Alliance for Social Justice and Economic Understanding (BSW) 5.3 percent.
The FDP failed to clear the 5 percent electoral threshold. The BSW’s crossing of the threshold made the party pivotal to forming a government in Saxony-Anhalt.
Different scenarios for a new government
The other parties, including the CDU, continue to reject cooperation with the AfD at both the federal and state levels. Based on the distribution of seats, the CDU, SPD, Greens, Left Party and BSW could form a majority against the AfD. However, whether the CDU and the Left Party can cooperate is one of the main obstacles to this option.
The BSW announced that it would not support the incumbent CDU state premier and proposed a nonpartisan premier. This position gives the BSW a significant role in choosing the new state premier.
If the BSW provides direct or indirect support to the AfD, the AfD’s top candidate could take office in the third round of the state parliament’s vote for premier. If the five parties reach a common agreement, the election of a CDU state premier would also be an option. Thus, scenarios involving both a majority government and a minority government remain under consideration.
Result could affect federal politics
The results in Saxony-Anhalt could influence elections scheduled for September 20 in the states of Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Following the election, debates over measures planned by the federal government, particularly pension reform, could also intensify.
The CDU is not currently challenging Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s position. However, the AfD’s success in the state could strengthen assessments that Merz’s policies aimed at weakening the AfD have failed to produce results.
M. Erkut Ayvaz, research director at SETA Berlin, said the election result could have lasting effects on the political balance in eastern Germany. Although Saxony-Anhalt accounts for approximately 2.5 percent of Germany’s population, the influence of the AfD in the state could extend into federal politics and debates on security and foreign policy.
The principle of non-cooperation among the parties other than the AfD, the possibility of a minority government and the BSW’s approach will determine the shape of the new state administration. The formula on which the parties will agree will emerge in the coming period.
