The growing strength of far-right parties in Europe has brought not only the migration debate but also centrist politics’ economic and foreign-policy choices back into focus. Prof. Dr. Kemal Inat, a faculty member at Sakarya University, assessed why voters are turning to these parties and the possibility that the far right could come to power in Europe’s major countries.
Inat said that, after Italy, the possibility of the far right gaining a role in government in France, Germany and the United Kingdom had become one of the central challenges facing centrist politics.
RN expected to lead in France’s first round
In France’s upcoming presidential elections, the far-right National Rally (RN) is expected to finish first in the opening round with about 35 percent of the vote. Cooperation among center-right, center-left and far-left voters is being discussed to prevent Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella from surpassing 50 percent in the second round.
Inat said reaching an agreement among the far left, which is seen as ranking second after the RN, and the center-right and center-left parties did not appear easy.
Far-right support in Germany and the United Kingdom
Germany’s federal parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2029, leaving a longer political timeframe than in France. Nevertheless, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) reaching 28 percent in recent opinion polls is causing unease within the political system. This puts the AfD 6 points ahead of the ruling Christian Union parties and 16 points ahead of the Social Democratic Party.
Poll results indicating that the AfD could receive 42 percent in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt scheduled for September have strengthened the possibility that the party could form its first state government in Germany.
In the United Kingdom, support for the Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, stands at around 25 percent in recent polls. The party is expected to overtake the Labour Party and move into first place. Its messaging, which began with an anti-European Union campaign, was later expanded to opposition to migrants, while Farage’s “Britons first” approach was described as resembling Donald Trump’s “America first” slogan.
The situation in Italy and other countries
Far-right parties in Austria, Portugal, Sweden and Poland have reached high levels of support in polls and become contenders for government. In Italy, meanwhile, the coalition led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party continues to govern the country.
Migration concerns turned into political support
According to Inat, one of the strongest factors driving European voters toward the far right is the way these parties turn concerns over the rising number of migrants in some countries into fear. In addition to migration driven by the search for better and safer living conditions, the growing number and visibility of foreigners in society can create unease among some established sections of the population. Cultural differences and distrust toward foreigners are also among the factors feeding this unease.
Far-right politicians seek to turn concerns linked to the rising number of migrants and refugees into political support. Inat assessed that xenophobic propaganda portrays migrants as the main cause of insecurity, economic problems and cultural alienation, while placing responsibility for these problems on centrist parties in power.
Narratives have become widespread claiming that the soft migration and refugee policies of center-right, center-left and liberal parties are endangering Europe’s identity, prosperity and security. The social media environment’s susceptibility to disinformation has also made it easier for far-right views to reach broad audiences.
Centrist parties lose voters’ trust
The inability of centrist parties to respond effectively to the far right’s xenophobic arguments is among the reasons for the decline of centrist politics in Europe. The adoption of anti-migrant and anti-refugee rhetoric by some parties to halt their loss of votes has also reinforced this trend.
Voters have not been convincingly informed of the fact that Europe needs skilled migrants and workers from abroad because of its aging population. The shift of centrist parties toward the far right has created an appearance of inconsistency, which can push anti-migrant voters directly toward far-right parties.
Other voters dissatisfied with the policies of centrist parties may turn to the far left and other marginal parties.
Economy and foreign policy affect support
The economic and foreign-policy practices of centrist parties can also increase support for populist far-right parties. It has been argued that energy and basic food prices rose in Germany because of the Russia policy pursued by the coalition between the Christian Union parties and the Social Democratic Party, bringing some voters closer to the AfD’s positions.
Criticism from the AfD that support for the Russia-Ukraine war had caused economic losses for Germany, led the country to accept large numbers of Ukrainian refugees and increased security risks has resonated with part of society. The party has persuaded some voters with the message that it would pursue a more accurate foreign policy if it came to power.
Far right poses a risk to European integration
Inat said the rise of far-right parties could push Europe toward a deep political rupture. While these parties are generally viewed as opposed to the idea of an integrated Europe, the future of the European Union could come under more intense scrutiny if the far right takes power or joins the government in France and Germany after Italy.
