- BIST10011,220-3.08%
- USD49.60+0.05%
- EUR55.68+0.11%
- GOLD4,065.50-2.04%
- INTEREST36.00%-1.00
- BITCOIN81,584-2.90%
- October 22, 202615°
- BIST10011,220-3.08%
- USD49.60+0.05%
- EUR55.68+0.11%
- GOLD4,065.50-2.04%
- INTEREST36.00%-1.00
- BITCOIN81,584-2.90%
- October 22, 202615°
Hormuz tensions rattle markets as Brent crude rises above $97
Mixed signals from U.S. employment data and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision came to the fore in global markets. Brent crude began the new week at $97.30 a barrel, up 1.1%.
Mixed signals from U.S. employment indicators, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision next week and developments between the United States and Iran formed the main themes of early trading in global markets at the start of the new week.
ADP private-sector employment data released last week pointed to a loss of momentum in the labor market, while an increase in nonfarm payrolls prompted assessments that the U.S. economy was maintaining its strong performance. The concentration of the increase in hospitality, food services and the public sector, however, led to comments that the rise could be seasonal.
In money markets, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising its policy rate by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting was priced at 58%, while the probability of keeping the rate unchanged stood at 42%. Inflation data due in the United States this week is expected to clarify expectations regarding the interest-rate decision.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said monetary policy was not restrictive. Hammack said that inflation remaining above the target for longer would make it more difficult to bring price increases down and said the time to act had come.
U.S. President Donald Trump argued that the employment data had tripled expectations outside his own forecasts and said interest rates should be lowered. Trump said markets should rise following the strong data and stated that growth would not cause inflation.
Brent crude rises to $97.30
Developments between the United States and Iran increased concerns about energy supplies, while oil prices continued to rise. November-delivery Brent crude ended the previous week at $96.30 a barrel, up 0.8%, and began the new week at $97.30, up 1.1%.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said a U.S. aircraft carrier and a destroyer participating in the naval blockade of Iranian vessels had been targeted with ballistic missiles. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary-general of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, announced that a new corridor agreement concerning the entry to and exit from Oman and the Strait of Hormuz would be signed in the coming days.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note ended the week at 4.78% and began the new week at 4.79%. The dollar index moved sideways at 99.2, while spot gold traded at $4,396 an ounce after falling 0.8%.
AI stocks support Asian markets
Optimism in the artificial intelligence sector was among the factors supporting risk appetite in the markets. OpenAI announced that a model called GPT-6 Astra had been made available to a limited number of users; the model was described as capable of managing complex computer systems, filling out spreadsheets and designing websites.
Expectations of increased investment in artificial intelligence strengthened forecasts for demand in the semiconductor sector. Shares of SK Hynix rose 7.4% in South Korea, while LG Electronics shares gained 5.1% and Samsung Electronics shares rose 5%.
In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.9% and South Korea’s Kospi gained 4.1%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell 0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.2%, while the dollar-yen exchange rate moved sideways at 156.09 in Japan.
Energy concerns weigh on European markets
Investors in European markets focused on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision. Concerns over persistently high tensions in the Middle East and the impact of energy prices on European economies contributed to European index futures opening the week lower.
In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party won the Saxony-Anhalt state election with 43.8% of the vote but failed to secure the majority needed to govern alone. On Friday, Italy’s FTSE MIB 30 fell 0.28% and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.09%, while Germany’s DAX 40 rose 0.17%.
Türkiye announces medium-term program
The BIST 100 index on Borsa Istanbul ended Friday up 0.57% at 14,012.42 points. The dollar-lira exchange rate closed Friday at 48.4330 and began the new week at 48.4390 in the interbank market.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz announced the Medium-Term Program covering the 2027–2029 period at the Presidential Complex. Yılmaz said they expected inflation to resume its decline in the last quarter of 2026 and reach 28.4% at the end of the year.
Yılmaz said Türkiye’s economy would grow by 3.3% in 2026 and stated that the growth rate was projected to reach 4.2% in 2027, 4.6% in 2028 and 5% in 2029.
The day’s data agenda includes Germany’s July industrial production, the euro area’s September investor confidence and second-quarter growth figures, as well as Türkiye’s August Treasury cash balance. U.S. markets will be closed for Labor Day.
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