The International Monetary Fund slightly raised its forecast for global growth this year, saying the boom in artificial intelligence is helping offset the damage from sharply higher oil and gas prices, while warning of growing risks from rising debt, including AI-related borrowing.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday, Oct. 13, as finance ministers and central bankers gather in Bangkok for the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, the fund said it expects the world economy to grow 3.1% in 2026. That is up from its July forecast of 3.0% but well below the 3.5% expansion of 2025. Growth should rebound to 3.4% in 2027.
Who grows, who slows
U.S. growth is forecast to hold steady at 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027. Advanced economies as a group will grow 2.1% this year, up from 2.0% in 2025, before slowing to 1.9% next year. The 21 countries that use the euro are expected to grow 1.1% this year and 1.2% in 2027. China is seen expanding 4.5%, down from 5% last year and in line with Beijing’s official target, while India remains the fastest-growing major economy at 7%, down from 7.7%.
The IMF raised its 2027 growth forecast for the U.S. economy to 2.3% from 2.2% previously, while keeping its 2026 projection unchanged at 2.3%. The Fund lifted this year’s forecast for Germany to 1.3% from 0.7% and for the United Kingdom to 1.3% from 1%, while cutting France to 0.4% from 0.6% and Russia to 0.9% from 1.1% for both 2026 and 2027.
Emerging and developing economies, more exposed to the energy shock, will slow to 3.7% this year from 4.5% in 2025 before picking up to 4.4% in 2027. The picture is bleakest in the Middle East and Central Asia, where economies are expected to contract this year before recovering to 6.3% growth in 2027.
The forecasts assume oil prices rise nearly 41% this year to an average of $96 a barrel, that oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume by March and that the surge in AI demand moderates. Global inflation is projected at 4.7% in 2026, easing to 4.1% next year.
AI: engine and risk
The gains from AI are not evenly shared: the United States and China account for more than three-quarters of net import demand for computer chips and other AI-related equipment, the report said. Growth is also increasingly concentrated, with 32 countries accounting for 95% of global growth, compared with 54 countries in April.
“The global economy is not simply slowing or accelerating; rather, growth is being reallocated across countries according to their exposure to the war-induced supply shock and AI-related demand strength.” — IMF World Economic Outlook
“The outlook is highly uneven,” Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s chief economist and director of research, told reporters in Bangkok. Athanasios Vamvakidis, deputy director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, said an AI-related correction in stock markets is only one of the risks, alongside rising bond yields and cyberthreats that could disrupt financial systems.
AI’s impact on jobs is another focus of the Bangkok meetings. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called it “a slow moving tsunami, but a tsunami nonetheless,” adding: “The impact over time on jobs globally we estimate to be around 40% – jobs either augmented or downgraded or eliminated. And we are already seeing some of this impact.”
Debt warning
Georgieva last week urged both rich and poor countries to put their public finances in better order and tame mounting debt, a call Tenreyro said is especially pressing at a time of high borrowing costs.
What it means for Türkiye
According to the report’s figures, as reported by Hürriyet Daily News, the IMF trimmed its 2026 growth forecast for Türkiye to 2.7% from 2.9% in July, while keeping its 2027 projection at 3.6%. It sees average consumer inflation in Türkiye at 31.2% this year and 26.5% next year.
