US Vice President JD Vance has begun drawing a strategic roadmap for the 2028 presidential elections by sharpening his critical rhetoric toward Israel. Vance's recent statements reflect a political calculation aimed at responding to the changing tendencies of the base by diverging from the dominant Israel discourse within the Republican Party.
In an interview with the New York Times, Vance denied claims of an "intense rivalry" with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while making notable statements on Israel over the past two weeks. Rubio, meanwhile, continues to maintain an unconditional support line for Israel, representing the traditional hawkish foreign policy wing of the Republican Party.
Divergence on Israel
Vance stated that "pro-Israel groups in the US have made two critical mistakes" and emphasized that "American interests and Israeli interests are not the same thing." He also said it is wrong to label criticism of the Israeli government as anti-Semitism. This rhetoric stands in stark contrast to Rubio's full support stance toward Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
While Secretary of State Rubio positions himself on a spectrum ranging from calling for war with Iran to considering criticism of Israel as grounds for deportation on national security grounds, Vance is leading peace negotiations with Iran. This difference is shaping up as a significant fault line in the 2028 Republican primary race.
Changing dynamics of the base
Recent polls show that support for Israel among the Republican base is weakening. 57 percent of Republicans under 50 express a negative view of Israel. Vance is assessed to have read these data and adopted a rhetoric that resonates with voters.
The fact that rhetoric shaped around the "America First" slogan is increasingly resonating on social media stands out as an important factor explaining Vance's strategic choice. The wide audience reached by right-wing commentators like Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens with content questioning the relationship with Israel reveals how influential different voices on Israel can be among Republican voters.
2028 scenarios and challenges
One of the biggest challenges facing Vance is possible changes in President Donald Trump's Israel policy. The possibility that Trump's current stance, which is distant from Netanyahu, could change by 2028 may affect Vance's position. Additionally, the potential for a new leader who may come to power in Israel's elections this fall to reverse the anti-Israel atmosphere in Washington is another risk factor.
The continued strong support for Israel from the Christian Zionist camp within the Republicans could cause Vance to face resistance even within the "America First" movement. On the other hand, the likely Democratic candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom, remaining in a more ambiguous position on Israel could give Vance an advantage on the critical ground.
Experts note that Israel will be a wedge issue for both parties in the upcoming elections, and that Vance's maneuverability in this area has increased in the shadow of failed Iran war strategies and pressures on freedom of expression.
