Leaders of NATO's 32 member countries gathered today in Ankara for a summit focused on increasing defense spending and support for Ukraine.
Hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the summit is also attended by U.S. President Donald Trump and other leaders. The two-day summit includes non-member countries such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung. Australia, Japan, and New Zealand have sent their defense or foreign ministers, while Gulf countries affected by the U.S.-Israel war on Iran—Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—are also represented. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa will not attend the summit but will hold a bilateral meeting with Trump in Ankara.
Trump's Demands from NATO
After member countries adopted a target at last year's summit in The Hague to raise defense spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2035, Trump is continuing to pressure allies this year. Of that target, 3.5 percentage points will be allocated to military spending and 1.5 points to security-related needs.
Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, Turkey regional director of the German Marshall Fund, said NATO will focus this year on implementing last year's pledges, stating, "NATO allies decided last year in The Hague to raise defense spending to 5 percent, and European allies have moved to strengthen their defense industries." Ünlühisarcıklı added that the discussion in Ankara this year will be on how to turn spending into capability, saying, "Therefore, the alliance is stronger than last year."
However, Paolo von Schirach, president of the Global Policy Institute, noted that capability gains from increased spending will take years, commenting, "More orders mean more military equipment, but that only happens over time. You can spend a lot and get very little."
Ukraine's Expectations from the Summit
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, whose country is not a NATO member, will hold a bilateral meeting with Trump on Wednesday. Zelenskyy plans to request additional Patriot air defense systems in the face of intensified Russian attacks. A drone strike on the capital Kyiv on Monday morning killed at least 11 people.
Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said Ukraine expects allies to signal that "this support will be sustained." Watling stated that the aim is "to show Russia that there will be no reduction in Ukraine's defense capacity over the next 12-24 months."
Watling said, "There is a direct correlation between the number of interceptor missiles provided to Ukraine and the damage Russia can inflict with ballistic missiles."
Issues Europe is Trying to Resolve
The billions of dollars in contracts that European countries are expected to announce at the summit are seen by some analysts as an effort to appease the Trump administration.
After European countries did not join the war on Iran, Trump said he wanted their "loyalty," not their money. He also added that he might not have attended the summit if it were not hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Turkey, for its part, has not only increased its defense spending in recent years but has also become one of NATO's largest military exporters.
Tensions over defense spending remain high. On the eve of the summit, Trump described Germany's defense spending as "ridiculous." Chancellor Friedrich Merz defended his country's budget, saying, "This is the greatest effort we have ever made to strengthen our defense capabilities."
U.S. Withdrawal Steps
Going beyond rhetoric, the U.S. announced a gradual withdrawal of its fighter jets, destroyers, and submarines from NATO countries. Watling commented, "Fewer U.S. infantry in Europe would be effective for messaging but means little," while "the withdrawal of U.S. air power has a more tangible impact."
Analysis: A Political Summit
According to analysts, a key question is whether the alliance can project an image of unity amid this rhetoric and withdrawals.
Von Schirach of the Global Policy Institute said, "The fundamental value of this summit is political; it shows that allies are still talking, still meeting, and still trying to project unity, even if underlying disagreements and doubts have not disappeared." "Ankara is a summit of reassurance and signaling rather than concrete, immediate changes on the ground."
