The Iran war, which began on February 28 with Israeli and US attacks, has been under a fragile ceasefire since April 8. A framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict is expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday.
As military clashes decrease, the political and diplomatic impacts of the war are becoming more prominent. The debate now focuses not only on who holds the upper hand on the battlefield but also on which side gains more ground at the negotiating table.
Iran Has Suffered Heavy Military Attrition
During the five-week offensive, much of Iran's air defense systems, a significant portion of its missile stockpiles, launch ramps, senior military command structures, and key nuclear facilities were damaged. This situation is considered a serious military attrition for Iran.
Nevertheless, some regional capitals view Iran's survival against the joint US-Israeli pressure as a significant outcome in itself. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Garibabadi stated that his country has "achieved great victories" in the war and that the agreement came to the table more because of "military successes" than diplomacy.
Strait of Hormuz Becomes a Pressure Tool
Iran has transformed the Strait of Hormuz from a theoretical threat into a tangible pressure tool. It did not completely close the strait but the disruptions demonstrated that it could credibly threaten to do so.
Now it appears Washington is negotiating sanctions relief in exchange for reopening a passage that was never fully closed. This shows that the agreement creates an economic and strategic negotiation space rather than a purely military one.
Framework Exists on Nuclear Issue, Details to Follow
The expected framework agreement includes Iran reaffirming that it is not pursuing nuclear weapons. However, details regarding enriched uranium stockpiles and a possible pause in enrichment are left for a more comprehensive second agreement.
There is not yet a full consensus. The draft on the table serves as a framework that lays the groundwork for negotiations on topics such as enriched uranium stockpiles and a halt in enrichment.
Sanctions Relief Could Also Impact Domestic Politics
Potential sanctions relief could strengthen the Tehran administration domestically. It is noted that such a step might provide more resources for the military program and proxy networks; however, the agreement text does not address issues like ballistic missiles, support for armed groups, or the power structure of the regime.
This situation has led to interpretations that the final text might be softer than what diplomacy could have achieved before the war. Even if an agreement is reached, its durability will depend on subsequent negotiations.
Expectations Diverge Between Washington and Tel Aviv
It is reported that the Trump administration initially hoped for a rapid regime collapse when entering the conflict, but when this did not happen, the priority shifted to ending the war. Iran believes Washington will not immediately return to military intervention as the November midterm elections approach.
On the Israeli side, there is significant disappointment with the outcome. While Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shared goals at the start of the war, their positions diverged when Washington decided to end the conflict.
The emerging picture resembles a temporary pause in a longer struggle rather than a completed peace agreement. Each party may present this as a victory from their perspective; the real test will be whether subsequent talks produce binding and verifiable limitations.
