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- October 23, 202612°
- BIST10011,220-3.08%
- USD49.63+0.05%
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- GOLD4,029.50-0.76%
- INTEREST36.00%-1.00
- BITCOIN81,653+0.41%
- October 23, 202612°
Russia's oil exports hit highest since Ukraine war, revenues decline
Russia's crude oil exports have reached their highest level since the start of the war in Ukraine, but export revenues have declined due to a drop in global prices.
Russia's crude oil exports have reached their highest level since the start of the war in Ukraine. An increase in seaborne shipments and the disabling of some domestic refinery capacity due to Ukrainian drone attacks have pushed export volumes to record levels.
According to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Russia's four-week average crude oil exports rose to 4.13 million barrels per day in the period ending June 28. This marked the highest level seen since 2022. Weekly shipments also hit an all-time record of 4.63 million barrels per day.
The total volume of Russian crude oil transported by sea rose to approximately 133 million barrels, representing a 34% increase compared to mid-April. Congestion has emerged off the coast of Egypt and east of Singapore, indicating difficulties in bringing some volumes to market.
Revenues decline
Despite the record increase in export volumes, Russia did not see a similar financial gain. Weekly revenue from oil exports on a four-week average fell to about $1.9 billion, the lowest level since March. The decline was driven by a fall in global prices and a corresponding decrease in the price of Urals crude oil.
The average price of Urals crude loaded from Baltic ports dropped to $62.66 per barrel, while Urals shipped from the Black Sea fell to $62.18 per barrel. Russia's ESPO crude oil traded at $74.27 per barrel.
Market observers assess that Moscow may be forced to offer larger discounts on its crude oil, especially if demand remains weak from its main buyers, China and India, or if waivers on Iranian oil are extended beyond mid-August.
Refinery attacks and domestic pressures
The increase in exports coincides with continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. The attacks have led to crude oil that cannot be processed locally being diverted for export. Recent attacks targeted facilities in Ufa, Yaroslavl, and Slavyansk-na-Kuban, as well as the Moscow Refinery. Estimates suggest the Moscow Refinery could remain offline until the end of the year.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said the country is experiencing problems with fuel supply, with shortages and queues at gas stations forming in some regions. Putin stated that the government has established a task force working around the clock to resolve the crisis and ensure supply. He noted that gasoline reserves currently stand at about 1.7 million tons and that production is expected to increase in July. Putin added that a full ban on diesel exports is being considered to stabilize the domestic market. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had previously stated that such a step was not necessary for now.
Putin also emphasized that priority would be given to fuel supply for the agricultural sector during the harvest season, calling it essential for the continuity of agricultural production.
Orientation towards Asian markets
Data showed that exports to Asian markets – including shipments with undisclosed destinations – rose to 3.98 million barrels per day in the four-week period ending June 28, the highest level since 2022. Shipments to China averaged about 1.08 million barrels per day, while the declared volume to India fell to 740,000 barrels per day. More than 2.1 million barrels per day were transported on tankers whose final destination has not yet been announced. This practice, common in Russian oil trade since the onset of Western sanctions, reflects a strategy of concealing the direction of shipments.
Economic impacts
The developments in the energy sector coincide with a slowdown in Russia's economy. Russian Central Bank Deputy Chairman Alexei Zabotkin said that the fuel sector operating below full capacity for several months could negatively impact economic performance this year.
The Russian Central Bank had previously announced a gross domestic product growth forecast of between 0.5% and 1.5% for 2026. Concerns are being raised that ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure will increase pressure on economic activity.
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