The heads of government of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland signed an agreement stressing the nations’ determination to decide their futures in their own ways and on their own timetables. Signed amid debate over U.S. President Donald Trump’s support for a united Ireland, the text brought constitutional debate over the United Kingdom’s future back to the forefront.
Professor Tim Bale of the Department of Politics at Queen Mary University of London said the initiative was intended to demonstrate support for pro-independence groups and put political pressure on the United Kingdom’s new prime minister.
Scotland needs London’s approval for a referendum
Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney described the United Kingdom’s new Prime Minister Andy Burnham as “the last prime minister of the United Kingdom.” The Scottish National Party, led by Swinney, is continuing to press for a new independence vote.
A decision by the Scottish Parliament alone is not enough to hold a referendum. Under a 2022 ruling by the United Kingdom Supreme Court, the legislative body authorized to permit a referendum is the 650-seat United Kingdom Parliament in London. Approximately 57 Scottish MPs sit in the parliament.
The latest poll in Scotland found that 56 percent supported leaving the United Kingdom, while 44 percent wanted to remain in the union. The distribution largely matched the result of the 2014 independence referendum.
The loss in gross domestic product following the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union is also shaping the debate over the economic consequences of independence. This could strengthen the arguments of those opposed to separation.
Support for separation in Wales trails Scotland
Rather than directly responding to calls for independence, Welsh First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth said Wales needed the powers, resources and fair treatment required by a nation.
Ap Iorwerth highlighted the flexibilities Scotland has and that Wales should receive at least to a minimum extent. In an August poll, once undecided voters were excluded, only one-third of Welsh voters said they would vote to leave the United Kingdom.
Northern Ireland seeks referendum on unification
Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill argued that the region had the right to hold a referendum on unification with the Republic of Ireland. O’Neill said they would not accept a prime minister who claimed that this right was no longer valid.
The 1998 Belfast Agreement allows a border poll if it is considered that a majority on both sides of the border supports the unification of Ireland. The decision to call a referendum belongs not to Northern Ireland’s First Minister but to the United Kingdom government’s Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.
The latest poll in the Republic of Ireland put support for unification at two-thirds. In Northern Ireland, the share holding the same view remained slightly above one-third. This picture largely reflects the sectarian divide between the predominantly Catholic “nationalist” population and the largely Protestant “unionist” population, which defines its identity around Britain.
Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin did not call for a referendum after U.S. President Donald Trump expressed support for a united Ireland. In Northern Ireland, the First Minister’s powers do not exceed those of the deputy first minister, who supports remaining part of the United Kingdom.
London focuses on families’ concerns rather than constitutional debates
The agreement signed by the three regional government leaders aims both to send pro-independence supporters the message that commitment to the cause continues and to exert political pressure on the United Kingdom’s new prime minister.
However, the government in London is expected to focus on issues considered important to families rather than new referendums and constitutional debates. The agreement could strengthen the pro-independence base, but the United Kingdom government is not expected to change its approach in the short term.
