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US Cities Face Extreme Heat Risks During 2026 World Cup
Scientific analysis indicates that some matches in the 2026 World Cup could be played under extreme heat conditions. Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Houston stand out as high-risk cities.
A significant portion of the matches to be held in the cities hosting the 2026 World Cup may experience extreme heat conditions, according to reports. The research revealed that heat stress levels in some cities could challenge players' health throughout the tournament schedule.
The study used a statistical model to estimate the likelihood of matches being played in very hot conditions. Scientists based their analysis on the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index, which is considered a more accurate measure of the heat load felt by the human body.
Which Cities Are More at Risk?
The analysis evaluated each host city in the US, Mexico, and Canada separately. Local factors such as altitude, humidity, regional climate, and the urban environment surrounding the stadiums were also taken into account.
Historical WBGT records for the tournament dates between June 11 and July 19 were compared against safety thresholds set by FIFPro. Values above 26 degrees Celsius require additional hydration and cooling measures. A threshold of 28 degrees Celsius is considered high risk, at which point postponing or halting matches is recommended.
According to the study, about a quarter of the matches could be played at the initial risk threshold, while at least five matches are expected to occur under high-risk conditions corresponding to 28 degrees Celsius.
Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Houston were identified as the most concerning cities. In these locations, the return period for WBGT conditions reaching 28 degrees Celsius is calculated to be just one year, meaning such conditions could recur almost every tournament day.
Regarding the 26-degree threshold, Atlanta, Boston, New York, and Monterrey in Mexico show a similar pattern. The research emphasizes that this increased risk is closely linked to accelerated global warming over recent decades.
Warming Climate Further Increases Risk
The study noted that the likelihood of conditions reaching 28 degrees Celsius has at least doubled since 1994 in host cities such as Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco, Monterrey, Toronto, and Vancouver.
Rubén del Campo from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency stated that the global average temperature has risen by 0.5 to 0.7 degrees since 1994. He noted that while this may seem small, it accounts for about half of the warming over the past 150 years.
Del Campo also pointed out that since the mid-1990s, the effects of climate change have become more pronounced worldwide, especially in heatwaves.
These findings align with other studies that have previously scrutinized the tournament due to extreme weather conditions. A study published at the end of 2024 found that 10 out of 16 host stadiums carry a "very high" risk of extreme heat, with stadiums in Arlington, Houston, and Monterrey potentially creating more challenging conditions for players and spectators.
Julien Périard, Director of the Sports and Exercise Research Institute at the University of Canberra, emphasized the need for proactive planning in large events and the importance of policies aimed at reducing heat. He reminded that WBGT only considers environmental conditions and does not account for metabolic heat produced by athletes or the heat retention effects of clothing.
FIFA announced that the 2026 World Cup schedule was prepared with a technical analysis of all stadiums, considering average temperatures, cooling infrastructure, public transport, and security conditions. The organization also stated that three-minute water breaks will be implemented during halftime in all tournament matches in response to high-temperature warnings.
However, scientists argue that these measures may not be sufficient. They advocate for adjustments in players' warm-up times, strengthening cooling infrastructure in stadiums, and stricter medical monitoring for both players and fans.
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