The 'Four Seas Initiative,' by which the US aims to change the energy equation in the Middle East, opens a new chapter in the region's strategic rivalry. Prof. Dr. Serhat Erkmen, Director of Pros&Cons Security and Risk Analysis, stated that the initiative aims to break the influence of competitors such as China, Russia and Iran by connecting the Persian Gulf, Caspian Sea, Mediterranean and Black Sea.
The Four Seas Initiative was first announced on March 26, 2026 at the Atlantic Council's US-Syria Energy Symposium in Washington by then-US Ambassador to Ankara and Special Representative for Syria Tom Barrack. The project stands out as an expanded version of the 'Three Seas Initiative' covering the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas, which was announced by Donald Trump in 2017.
Four Main Energy Corridors Planned
Four main corridors are foreseen under the initiative:
- Gulf-Mediterranean Corridor: Involves the transfer of oil from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE to the port of Tartus in Syria via Jordan. This route aims to provide an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal.
- Iraq-Syria Corridor: Envisages the reconstruction of the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline, closed in 1979, with a daily capacity of 1.5 million barrels. The corridor aims to reduce Iraq's dependence on the Basra terminal.
- Caspian-Mediterranean Corridor: Aims to add a Syria connection to the existing route that carries Azerbaijani and Turkmen natural gas to Europe via Turkey through TANAP.
- Arab Gas Pipeline Modernization: Focuses on transporting Egyptian natural gas to Europe via Jordan, Syria and Turkey.
First Phase: Iraq-Syria Connection
According to Prof. Dr. Erkmen, the most viable leg of the project for now is the Iraq-Syria Corridor. Noting that the US is exerting diplomatic pressure to prevent a government close to Iran from taking office in Iraq, Erkmen said the new Iraqi government openly supports Washington's initiatives in the oil sector.
Erkmen reported that companies such as Chevron, Hunt Oil, HKN, ConocoPhillips and Qatar Energy, listed as financiers in the June project report, have made significant gains in Iraq over the last two months, and noted that the same firms have signed agreements for the operation of natural gas and oil fields in Syria. It is stated that these companies are playing a decisive role in the construction of the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline.
Turkey's Critical Role
Erkmen pointed out that after Syria, the second key country in the Four Seas Initiative is Turkey. He stated that the project aims not only to reduce Iran's influence in the Persian Gulf and Iraq but also to block China's Belt and Road Project from reaching Europe. In this context, Turkey is positioned at the center of international transport lines coming from the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Erkmen stated that the Iraq-Turkey Development Road could be expanded to include northeastern Syria, and thus, in addition to road transport, Turkey would become a critical intersection for delivering natural gas pipelines to Europe.
Chances of Success Low, but Effects Are Already Visible
Prof. Dr. Serhat Erkmen described the likelihood of the project being fully realized as 'almost none.' Recalling that no state has volunteered to contribute financially, that the main market for Gulf countries is Asia, and that Saudi Arabia has alternative refineries on the Red Sea, Erkmen said that for these reasons not all four corridors are being pursued simultaneously, but rather the Iraq-Syria leg is being prioritized. However, he added that the effects already felt on Iraq and Syria show the initiative must be taken seriously.
