With 100 days to the November midterm elections in the U.S., the American and British press are drawing attention to six critical indicators that outline the race. Despite President Donald Trump being set to leave office in 2029, the 'America First' policy that propelled him to power is spreading beyond his party's boundaries to a wider base.
1. 'America First' rhetoric spreads among Democrats
According to Axios, a growing number of Democrats are embracing their own version of 'America First' rhetoric in response to Trump's war against Iran alongside Israel. This complicates the slogan while giving Democrats an opportunity to attack in the same language.
Abdul Sayed, a progressive Senate candidate from Michigan, claimed "I am the most 'America First' candidate in the country," arguing that money should be kept in the U.S., not spent on wars abroad. Democratic Representative Ro Khanna, who is considering a White House bid, said a new Middle East war does not fit that concept.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez noted that money spent on bombs abroad could be redirected to schools at home, while Vice President Kamala Harris stated that America's revival would "begin with public money spent on housing, health, and child care, not reckless foreign wars."
2. Election map favors Republicans
Although the overall atmosphere appears to favor Democrats, the electoral map gives Republicans an edge. According to Axios' analysis, in the House of Representatives, even if the national trend leans Democratic, the distribution of districts throws Republicans a lifeline. In the Senate, the structural advantage is more pronounced: Democrats need to flip four seats to win the majority, at least two of which are in states considered conservative strongholds.
Republicans hope redistricting in nine states will help them; party calculations suggest this could net them six to nine additional seats.
3. Iowa and Michigan emerge as critical states
Axios identifies Iowa as a critical stop for the House. Inflation and retaliatory tariffs are noted to be hitting agriculture here, while Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' path to the majority is emphasized as running through this state. Flipping two of the four Republican seats would be a good result; winning three would mean a big night.
In the Senate, the primary race in Michigan stands out. The battle between Haley Stevens and Abdul Sayed is seen as the last big test of the Democratic primary season. Stevens holds a large financial advantage, but polls are neck and neck.
4. Economy and Iran war weigh on voters
The cost of living emerges as Democrats' most obvious weapon. Although inflation is slowing, prices, especially gasoline, rose during Trump's first two years. Axios describes the link between gas nearing $4 a gallon and the unpopular Iran war as "a political gift" for Democrats.
According to the Washington Post, quoting from Iowa, Republican voters complain about inflation and the Iran war. One voter who had voted for Trump three times said the president did the opposite of his promises on gas, food, energy, and avoiding war, and might not vote or could vote Democratic.
5. Cooling in Republican base raises concern
The Washington Post writes that pollsters and Republican groups are warning about reluctance within the conservative base. The political arm of Americans for Prosperity calculates that roughly one in five reliable Republican voters is "at risk," considering either staying home or voting for Democrats.
A Washington Post-Ipsos poll shows Democrats leading by 10 points among those who say they will definitely vote. Senator Ron Johnson says the party needs to "re-energize its base."
6. Fears grow over voting process
According to Newsweek, Senate Democrats in closed-door sessions are examining scenarios that could disrupt the election, such as AI-generated fake records or National Guard troops near voting centers. Experts stress that the president has no authority to cancel or postpone federal elections.
The Guardian examines these concerns under three main headings:
- Mail-in voting: Trump repeatedly tried to restrict mail-in voting. Experts worry the administration could use the U.S. Postal Service to control the flow of ballots.
- Voting machines: Trump sowed doubts about electronic voting machines and linked them to allegations of Chinese interference.
- 'Save America' bill: This bill, stalled in Congress, would restrict mail-in voting and force states to hand over voter rolls to the federal government. Activists say these restrictions would especially hit Black, Indigenous, elderly, and student voters.
The Guardian adds that the constant fraud narrative and the memory of the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack keep officials and activists on high alert.
