Brent crude prices dipped below $71 a barrel on Thursday for the third straight day, pressured by progress in talks between the US and Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a rebound in oil shipments from the Gulf.
International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $70.76 at 5:28 p.m. Istanbul time, down about 1.13%. The level indicated that prices have returned to pre-war levels.
The drop came after a Qatari foreign ministry spokesman said on Wednesday that the parties had made 'positive progress' in talks held in Doha focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump also told reporters the same day that 'the process of denuclearizing Iran is going well.'
However, tensions flared again on Thursday after a threat statement from Iran's joint military command. The command announced it would deliver an 'immediate and coercive response' to ships that deviate from designated routes in the Strait of Hormuz. The statement aired on Iranian state television said: 'Should the Islamic Republic of Iran's navigation protocols in the Strait of Hormuz be violated, a vessel stray from its designated route, or these rules be disregarded, the armed forces will deliver an immediate and coercive response that jeopardizes the safety of the violating ship.' It was not immediately clear on what grounds the threat was made.
The next round of talks between the US and Iran is expected to be held after the funeral of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which is set to begin on Saturday.
Meanwhile, oil exports from Gulf countries continued to recover in recent days. Saudi Arabia increased its shipments through the Strait of Hormuz amid gradually improving conditions. According to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, four supertankers carrying about 8 million barrels of crude oil sailed from the kingdom's main export terminal at Ras Tanura into the Arabian Sea on Thursday. That marked the highest number of supertankers exiting the strait in a single day since a memorandum of understanding was signed on June 17.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) also accelerated its exports. According to Kpler ship-tracking data, the country's oil exports in June surpassed 3.9 million barrels per day. The UAE, which left OPEC in May, reached its highest export rate since 2017.
Total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz rose above 10 million barrels per day, according to a US official who spoke to Bloomberg. The figure signals a significant recovery from the lows seen during the conflict, but remains far below the average of 18-19 million barrels per day that transited the waterway before the war.
After the US and Israel launched attacks against Iran on Feb. 28, Tehran retaliated against US assets in the region, Israel, and neighboring Gulf countries including critical energy infrastructure. Iran's Revolutionary Guards also restricted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic waterway, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments pass in peacetime, was almost completely shut down when the war began. Oil prices surged to $115 a barrel in early May amid supply fears.
Shipments through the strait have gradually recovered since Iran and the US signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17 to permanently end the war. However, occasional attacks continue to disrupt maritime traffic despite the ceasefire. The two sides are engaged in a 60-day intensive negotiation process aimed at fully reopening the strait, ending hostilities and limiting Tehran's nuclear program.
