Competition between China and India, the two largest Asian customers of Russian oil, has become an arena shaped not only by energy security but also by pressure from Washington. China is securing its own supplies by buying more oil from Russia while narrowing India’s access to discounted Russian crude.
This competition is expected to affect the future of the Russia-Ukraine war and regional power balances. Energy trade is becoming a tool not only in the economic rivalry between Beijing and New Delhi but also in the balancing policy between Moscow and New Delhi.
China is moving ahead of India in Russian oil
After the Russia-Ukraine war began, the commercial and political sanctions imposed on Moscow by the West redirected global energy flows toward Asia. As Russia lost much of its share of the European market, it shifted the center of gravity of its oil and natural gas exports toward Asia, where China and India are located.
Reports on data for June 2026 put China’s share of Russian crude oil exports at approximately 50 percent and India’s at 36 percent. The two countries therefore gained significant weight in Russia’s energy revenues and became the two largest customers for discounted Russian oil.
However, Beijing and New Delhi face different supply conditions. China shares a border with Russia and has direct pipeline connections. Its extensive tanker network, large energy companies and financial system, which is more resilient to sanctions pressure, also provide additional advantages.
India, by contrast, transports most of its Russian oil by sea. Sanctions targeting tankers, rising shipping and insurance costs, and problems with international payment systems are putting greater pressure on New Delhi than on China.
Beijing’s calculations in its oil policy
Three objectives stand out behind China’s increased purchases of Russian oil. Beijing wants to fill its strategic petroleum reserves at relatively favorable prices, diversify supply sources in the face of a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and risks in the Middle East, and prepare for a possible new trade war or security crisis with the United States.
For this reason, Russian oil is more than a low-cost raw material for China. If war or a security crisis disrupts sea routes, oil supplied by Russia could serve as a strategic safeguard for China’s energy security.
China’s declining oil purchases from Iran are also increasing Russia’s importance. China’s imports from Iran reportedly fell to as little as 340,000 barrels per day in August, while seaborne oil deliveries from Russia stood at 1.25 million barrels per day.
Competition intensifies as Russia’s output declines
Russia’s oil supply is not unlimited. Ukrainian attacks targeting Russian refineries and energy infrastructure have put pressure on the country’s production and processing capacity.
According to International Energy Agency data, Russia’s oil production fell to approximately 8.9 million barrels per day in 2026. At a time when production and processing capacity are under pressure, China’s increased purchases are limiting India’s access to low-priced Russian oil and weakening its bargaining power with Moscow.
Washington’s pressure challenges New Delhi
India is seeking to preserve its traditional relations and energy interests with Russia while continuing its drive to develop defense, trade, technology and strategic cooperation with the United States. The possibility of facing secondary sanctions and high tariffs because of its purchases of Russian oil is narrowing New Delhi’s decision-making space.
China, however, does not have to reflect Western pressure in its foreign policy choices as directly as India does because of its long-running trade war and strategic rivalry with the United States. In addition to state-owned companies, Beijing can rely on small and independent refineries involved in purchasing and processing sanctioned oil.
Independent refineries known in China as “teapots” allow trade to continue through different companies, intermediaries, alternative currencies and tanker networks when major state-owned companies withdraw because of sanctions risks. This structure gives China greater flexibility in securing Russian oil supplies.
Moscow gains bargaining power in the short term
Competition between China and India is opening up a degree of bargaining space for Russia. Moscow can use demand from the two major Asian economies to reduce discounts on oil sales and avoid dependence on a single major customer.
At the same time, China’s growing weight in Russian energy exports could increase Moscow’s dependence on the Chinese market in the long term. Competition that benefits Russia today could eventually develop into a new relationship of dependence that expands China’s influence over Russian energy policy.
China’s strategy is narrowing the space for access to affordable energy needed by Indian industry while using Russian energy resources alongside its national security objectives. Russian oil is therefore emerging as an important element not only of economic interests but also of China-India competition and the balancing policy between Moscow and New Delhi.
