Prolonged rainfall shortages and extreme heat have increased pressure on agriculture, drinking-water resources and energy production across Europe while also severely restricting river shipping. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) assessed drought conditions across much of the continent in July as “persistent and critical.”
Conditions worsened in parts of central and western Europe, including France, southern Germany, Hungary, Austria, Czechia and Slovakia. Drought directly affected transport and energy networks through low river levels.
Ships forced to reduce their loads on the Rhine
Falling water levels on the Rhine, Germany’s main industrial waterway, reduced the cargo capacity of freight vessels. The river carries about 80 percent of the cargo transported on Germany’s inland waterways.
Near Kaub in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate, most vessels could no longer navigate with their normal loads. As a result, the movement of cargo between the northern and southern sections of the Rhine became effectively more difficult for shipping companies.
Low water levels also disrupted logistics in eastern France. The amount of fuel carried by tankers arriving at the Port of Strasbourg fell from 1,500 tons under normal conditions to 350 tons.
At 14 percent of stations in the Grand Est region, at least one type of fuel ran out. The rate was recorded at 3 percent across France, while in parts of Haut-Rhin and neighboring Territoire de Belfort, the share of affected stations ranged from 25 percent to 50 percent.
The water crisis deepens on the Po and Danube
France’s Loire region issued its eighth drought decree after rainfall failed to ease the drought. In some areas, water use was placed under the highest crisis category, restricting it to essential health and safety needs.
The Po Basin in northern Italy was raised to the “high” water-stress level, the most severe classification. Nearly all monitoring stations recorded severe drought, while conditions in Cremona and Borgoforte were classified as extreme drought.
In Lomellina, one of Italy’s major rice-producing centers, irrigation water is being supplied on a rotating basis. Agricultural losses are estimated to exceed €100 million. In the Po Delta, reduced freshwater flows allowed saltwater from the Adriatic Sea to move farther upstream in the riverbed, threatening the availability of water for irrigation.
The Danube, the European Union’s longest river, is also experiencing severe hydrological drought. The river is important for transport, irrigation, energy and drinking water in the 10 countries through which it passes.
In Budapest, the river’s water level fell to between 14 and 19 centimeters on August 4. As the water receded, large sections of the riverbed, sunken ships and a rock formation historically associated with famine warnings became visible. Some sections near Szentendre became suitable for pedestrian crossings.
The drop in water levels temporarily left between 4,000 and 5,000 households without access to drinking water. It also created a risk for the Paks Nuclear Power Plant, which draws cooling water from the Danube and produces about half of the country’s electricity. Work began to sink two 80-meter-long barges near the facility to raise the water level.
At Bazias, Romania’s entry point on the Danube, the river’s flow fell to as low as 1,400 cubic meters per second in August. The flow could fall to 1,300 cubic meters per second, compared with a long-term August average of 3,900 cubic meters per second.
Drought and heat are intensifying the same crisis
Scientific assessments show that the situation in Europe is a compound crisis in which prolonged rainfall shortages and extreme heat reinforce each other. High-pressure systems affecting northern and central Europe during winter and early spring prevented rain-bearing weather systems from the Atlantic from reaching Germany, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia and the Baltic region.
After April, the high-pressure area expanded westward. This made it more difficult for systems bringing rainfall to the Iberian Peninsula, France and northern Italy to reach the region. In June, hot air moving northward from southern Europe intensified the effects of drought through prolonged clear weather and record temperatures.
Rising temperatures accelerated the transfer of water from soil and plants into the atmosphere. As dry soil absorbed more heat, meteorological drought turned into agricultural drought; falling river, lake and groundwater levels added hydrological drought to the picture.
Scientists found that conditions similar to the soil-moisture deficit seen in western Europe in 2026 had become about five times more likely in western Europe and 11 times more likely in eastern Europe than under a climate 1.4 degrees cooler than the pre-industrial period.
Crop yields and energy production under pressure
The JRC reduced its yield forecasts for winter crops by between 1 percent and 4 percent from the previous month. The reductions in forecasts for grain corn and sunflower were between 6 percent and 7 percent.
France is facing its lowest corn harvest in decades, while more than 1 million hectares of corn-growing areas have been lost in Romania. Central and western France, southern Czechia, western Slovakia, Hungary and western Romania were identified as the main agricultural risk areas. Harvest expectations also declined in Germany, Spain and Italy.
Falling river levels are increasing transport costs while also putting electricity generation at risk. Nuclear and thermal power plants need river water for cooling, while hydroelectric plants require sufficient river and reservoir levels.
In France, three nuclear reactors were shut down during the late-June heat wave because river water was too warm or flows were insufficient. Eight more reactors operated at reduced capacity.
According to calculations by Triodos Bank, drought and extreme heat could reduce the European Union’s economic output in 2026 by about 1 percent. The loss, equivalent to approximately €180 billion, is expected to erase much of the European Commission’s projected 1.1 percent growth for the same year. Heat-related losses in labor productivity alone are estimated to reach about 0.6 percent of gross domestic product.
