Hormuz Strait crisis and Russian gas ban drive Europe into energy crisis

Europe faces a serious energy crisis before winter due to supply disruptions in the Hormuz Strait and the EU's upcoming ban on Russian gas. Gas storage levels have dropped to 48 percent, while prices have risen to 42 euros per megawatt-hour; experts warn that the difficult winter ahead could cause economic and social turmoil.

Scraper SystemJuly 01, 2026, 11:47 PM

Hormuz Strait crisis and Russian gas ban drive Europe into energy crisis

Europe faces a serious energy crisis before winter due to supply disruptions in the Hormuz Strait and the European Union's (EU) upcoming ban on Russian gas imports at the start of the year. Experts note that gas storage stocks have fallen to the lowest level in 15 years.

Stocks and Prices

According to current data, gas storage facilities in Europe are only at 48 percent capacity. By the end of October, when the refilling season ends, this rate is expected to reach only 76 percent. Prices have jumped from the pre-war level of 31 euros to 42 euros per megawatt-hour; the peak seen in March was above 60 euros. The EU's decision to ban Russian gas imports, set to take effect at the beginning of next year, further increases uncertainty.

Indirect Impact of Hormuz

According to oil and energy expert Amer al-Shubaki, supply disruptions in the Hormuz Strait do not affect Europe directly; the continent's dependence on this strait is below 10 percent. Nevertheless, the indirect impact has been significant. The disruptions led to a supply contraction in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market and rising prices. This caused Asian buyers to pay higher prices and divert ships that would have gone to Europe; this competition has driven European stocks to historically low levels.

Europe's Difficult Choice

According to Shubaki, Europe is stuck between two bad options: either enter winter with low stocks, risking energy security and public heating, or buy gas at high prices to fill storage, which would further strain inflation and already tight government budgets. Stating that alternative energy projects are unstable and unreliable, the expert warns that a drop in wind energy during winter could consume the continent's remaining stocks.

Worst-Case Scenario

Europe, which ended last winter with stocks below 30 percent, could face economic upheaval and social unrest if price increases are passed on to citizens. If governments bear the cost, it would add a new fiscal burden on top of the COVID-19 pandemic, energy supports during the Russia-Ukraine war, high inflation, and interest rates.

Shubaki predicts that the gas market, which is undergoing a transformation in global energy security, will not return to normal before 2027 due to increasing demand. The expert said, "If shipments from the Gulf stop or remain limited, the worst-case scenario could lead to the halt of all economic sectors in Europe and Asia, and also disrupt substances like sulfur and helium obtained alongside gas, spreading to the technology and food sectors."

Hormuz Strait crisis and Russian gas ban drive Europe into energy crisis