With Brazil’s presidential race expected to take place in October narrowing, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva led Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff. A Quaest poll commissioned by Globo showed Lula with 43% support and Flávio Bolsonaro with 40%.
The survey, conducted from August 10 to 13 among 2,004 people, has a two-point margin of error. The three-point gap in the runoff therefore leaves the candidates statistically tied.
Lula’s lead narrows
In a similar poll conducted on August 5, Lula led Bolsonaro by 44% to 39%. The latest survey showed that the gap between the two candidates had narrowed.
Lula leads in first round
In the first-round simulation, Lula ranked first with 38% support. Flávio Bolsonaro received 31%, while Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado each received 4%, and Romeu Zema received 2%.
Under Brazil’s electoral system, if none of the candidates secures more than half of the valid votes, the two candidates with the highest vote shares compete in a runoff.
Flávio Bolsonaro emerges as the right’s candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has become the leading candidate of Brazil’s political right after his father was barred from running.
Jair Bolsonaro was declared ineligible to run by Brazil’s highest electoral court on grounds of abusing his political power. He was later convicted over a conspiracy to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula.
Lula warns Trump administration over sovereignty
Lula launched his campaign for reelection at a Workers’ Party congress in São Paulo on August 2. In his speech, he defended Brazil’s national sovereignty in the face of pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.
Lula said Brazil would not allow its rare earth elements and other critical minerals to come under foreign control. He said China, the United States and France must respect Brazil’s sovereignty to gain access to the country’s mineral resources.
Lula also warned Trump not to interfere in Brazil’s elections, saying the elections were Brazil’s own affair. Trump has maintained close ties with the Bolsonaro family.
Published about two months before the election, the poll showed Lula holding a narrow lead as the race grows increasingly competitive.
