Sunday's state parliament election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, in eastern Germany, will be closely watched nationwide because of the one-point gap between the SPD and AfD and the risk that the CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, may fail to clear the electoral threshold.
Polling stations will open at 8 a.m. local time and close at 6 p.m. Around 1.3 million voters are expected to cast ballots, with 16- and 17-year-olds voting for the state parliament for the first time. Initial projections are expected shortly after voting ends.
SPD and AfD neck and neck
In the latest poll, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Minister-President Manuela Schwesig stood at 37%, while the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) was measured at 36%. The AfD, which had led the race for months, fell one point behind the SPD in the latest survey.
The Socialist Left Party stood at 9%, Minister-President Friedrich Merz's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at 6%, the Greens at 5% and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) at 4%. The CDU is only one point above the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament. Meanwhile, 21% of those surveyed said they had not yet made up their minds.
The election comes two weeks after the AfD won 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, its strongest result ever in a German state. The result in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will show whether the party can continue its rise in eastern Germany in another state.
Schwesig seeks to prevent an AfD majority
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, located on the Baltic Sea coast and largely sparsely populated, has Schwerin as its capital. The SPD has governed the state with changing coalition partners since 1998, while Manuela Schwesig has served as minister-president since 2017.
The SPD won 39.6% in the 2021 election and formed a coalition with the Left Party. Schwesig is said to enjoy support extending beyond the party base. In one poll, 61% said they would vote for Schwesig if the minister-president were elected directly, while 30% said they would support the AfD's candidate for minister-president, Leif-Erik Holm.
Schwesig built her campaign around preventing the AfD from securing a majority. She said the election represented a choice between a strong SPD and a democratic coalition, arguing that the alternative would be an AfD victory that would bring extremist elements to power.
Leif-Erik Holm, the AfD's candidate for minister-president, has served in the federal parliament since 2017 and is his party's spokesperson on economic affairs. Placing social and economic problems at the center of his campaign, Holm has sharply criticized the SPD-led administration. He said 28 years of SPD rule had been enough and that the state needed change under an AfD government.
AfD seeks tougher migration and energy policies
The AfD's state election program is titled "Ready for the Blue Turn," a reference to the party's blue color. While promising economic relief, the program calls for a tougher approach to migration.
It calls for halting the admission of migrants and returning Syrian asylum-seekers living in the state. It also demands the creation of a state border and deportation police force, more detention facilities for people awaiting deportation, and a task force targeting foreign criminals.
The AfD also advocates loosening gun laws and reducing bureaucracy in certain police checks conducted without suspicion. Its energy policy includes a return to nuclear power and the abolition of Germany's carbon tax.
Coalition arithmetic depends on the election result
The close race between the SPD and AfD, along with uncertainty over whether smaller parties will clear the 5% threshold, makes it difficult to predict the coalition options after the election. Neither of the two major parties is expected to win an outright majority in the state parliament, making partners necessary to form a government.
If the SPD comes first, its existing coalition with the Left Party may not be enough for a majority. If the Greens clear the threshold, a three-party coalition of the SPD, Left Party and Greens is expected to secure a majority and become the most likely option.
If the AfD finishes first but fails to win a majority, its path to power will remain unclear. The SPD, CDU, Greens and Left Party have pledged to form a "firewall" by refusing to enter coalition talks with the AfD.
The BSW has said it is open to negotiations on the condition that an independent minister-president who is not a party member leads the government. This approach will also be tested in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern following similar debates in Saxony-Anhalt.
National test for Merz and the CDU
The election is expected to serve as an indicator of national public sentiment in Berlin and of whether Friedrich Merz, whose support has fallen to historic lows, can remain in the chancellorship.
The CDU's expected support of around 6% in the state raises the possibility that it could fall below the 5% threshold. If the CDU fails to clear the threshold, it will have no seats in Schwerin's state parliament for the first time since reunification. Even if the party crosses the threshold, a result below 9% would be its weakest postwar performance in a state election. The CDU came first in the state in the 1990 and 1994 elections.
Merz has canceled a planned visit to New York for the United Nations General Debate and will remain in the capital during and after the voting process. Merz and senior CDU officials are expected to meet at the party headquarters on Sunday night, with assessments continuing on Monday.
CDU lawmakers and members of the party's Bavarian sister organization, the CSU, are scheduled to meet two days later to discuss the election result. As debate over a possible leadership change involving Merz has continued for weeks, the CDU's eight state ministers-president issued a joint statement supporting Merz ahead of Wednesday's elections.
Political observers say a strong AfD result and a new historic defeat for the CDU could trigger an internal leadership contest in the coming days. Replacing the CDU leadership would not automatically mean dissolving the federal parliament or holding an early election. If Merz steps down under internal party pressure, lawmakers could elect a new chancellor without a nationwide election.
