Strong El Niño points to wet South, mild North this winter, NOAA says

NOAA's winter outlook favors wetter-than-average conditions from California to Florida and along the East Coast and warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern United States as a strong El Niño takes hold.

A strong El Niño is set to shape the coming winter across the United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook for December 2026 through February 2027 favors warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier of the country and wetter-than-average conditions from California to Florida and along the Eastern Seaboard.

The Climate Prediction Center's Oct. 8 update kept an El Niño advisory in place, saying a strong to very strong El Niño is likely to persist through January-March 2027, with a probability above 83%. The last very strong El Niño occurred in 2015-16.

Satellite view of snow cover across the United States in February 2026

NOAA's Ken Graham said a very strong El Niño shifts the jet stream south and east, tilting the odds toward stormier weather across the South. The pattern is also expected to ease drought across much of the country.

Forecasters cautioned that the outlook does not predict snowfall, which generally cannot be forecast more than a week ahead, and that cold outbreaks remain possible. A National Weather Service review of 12 past El Niño winters found that eight brought warmer-than-normal conditions to the Northern Plains, while four were colder than normal.

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