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- October 18, 202614°
- BIST10011,722-2.89%
- USD49.45+0.05%
- EUR55.62+0.37%
- GOLD4,181.10+0.26%
- INTEREST37.00%-1.00
- BITCOIN81,065-0.39%
- October 18, 202614°
Trump’s South Asia balance strengthened Pakistan’s hand
Trump’s tensions with India in the new term have increased Pakistan’s diplomatic visibility in Washington. India, meanwhile, is trying to rebalance amid trade, tariffs, Iran-linked energy pressure and regional tensions.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met at the G7 summit in France. In their first face-to-face contact since February 2025, Modi greeted Trump with a smile and a handshake instead of his customary hug.
The two leaders also held a bilateral meeting on Wednesday. Although the meeting was friendly, relations between the two countries have been overshadowed by a series of mounting tensions in recent months.
Pakistan’s diplomatic space expanded
India had long pursued a policy of isolating Pakistan internationally. But recently, Pakistan has become more visible on the regional and global stage, complicating that calculation.
Trump’s announcement in May 2025 that a ceasefire had been reached between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan was one of the clearest signs of this shift. The war, which escalated over Indian-administered Kashmir, was the most severe conflict seen in years.
Islamabad praised Trump for ending the conflict and floated nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize. New Delhi, however, argued that the ceasefire was achieved through direct bilateral contacts with Pakistan, not through third-party intervention.
This divergence once again highlighted India’s sensitivity to outside interference in the Kashmir issue. New Delhi firmly views this as a bilateral matter.
Tariffs and sanctions pressure strained relations
Relations became even more difficult in the following months. The Trump administration imposed some of the highest tariff rates among major economies on India.
During the same period, sanctions pressure on Russian oil strained India’s energy imports, and disputes over H-1B visas also increased tensions. Analysts say Trump’s “America First” approach has overshadowed the warm relationship Modi built during his first term.
Sid Dubey, a visiting professor at Bennett University in India, argued that New Delhi failed to adequately read the change during Trump’s second term. Dubey said India acted on the assumption that the previous closeness would continue.
According to Dubey, Trump’s claim that he personally ended the May conflict caused serious discomfort in India. The subsequent tariffs further exacerbated that discomfort.
The Iran war also affected India
India was one of the countries most affected by the indirect strategic shocks from the Iran war. Energy security and economic pressure were among New Delhi’s primary concerns.
Tensions rose last week when it was reported that three Indian sailors had died as a side effect of a U.S. strike. These individuals were the only sailors confirmed killed under the U.S. blockade.
In response, New Delhi summoned Washington’s chargé d’affaires Jason Meeks and expressed deep concern over the renewed attacks. India argued that its citizens were being harmed in a war that was not theirs.
The Indian government also warned that the conflict would have long-lasting humanitarian, economic and energy consequences. Even though the parties have reached an agreement, it noted that the full impact will take time to dissipate.
Pakistan made its ties with Washington visible
Throughout this period, Pakistan maintained close ties with China, Iran and Gulf countries while also emerging as an accepted actor in Washington. This dual visibility highlighted Islamabad’s diplomatic agility.
Sadanand Dhume, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Pakistan’s role in recent months shows it has pursued a more agile foreign policy than India. According to Dhume, Islamabad has neutralized India’s plan to isolate Pakistan internationally.
Regional balances were also reshaped by the two countries’ differing strategies. India deepened Quad cooperation with the U.S., Australia and Japan while expanding its ties across South Asia and taking steps to broaden relations with Afghanistan.
Pakistan, meanwhile, forged stronger links with China, improved relations with regional partners like Bangladesh and increased security cooperation with Gulf countries.
Trump’s praise strengthened Islamabad’s hand
During his first term, Trump had accused Pakistan of “deception and lies.” But recently he has frequently praised the Pakistani government and especially General Asim Munir.
In June 2025, Trump invited Asim Munir to the White House for lunch. Munir became the first non-civilian Pakistani army chief hosted by a U.S. president.
Trump called Munir “my favorite marshal” and “an extraordinary human being.” This closeness also reflected in trade contacts and Pakistan’s role as a mediator in diplomatic processes with Iran.
Dhume said Pakistan has carved out space in Washington through concrete cooperation with the U.S. and open praise for Trump. In his view, this has helped Pakistan rebuild its global image.
India, while maintaining close ties with Israel, chose to keep its messaging more measured. Modi, in a statement after the agreement with Iran, said he hoped the deal would support peace and stability in the region and maintain freedom of navigation.
India tries to regain lost ground
Experts also stress that this picture does not have to be permanent. They note that Pakistan’s current diplomatic momentum is not guaranteed and that India could also rebalance.
Trump’s flattering words for Modi keep the possibility of a new thaw between the two countries on the agenda. Trump described Modi as “calm, cool and very tough” and said he might visit India in the future.
The U.S. president also said the U.S. would stand by India if anyone attacks Modi. The Indian government is pushing for Trump to visit the country.
Nevertheless, tariffs, the Iran war, energy pressure and Pakistan’s growing visibility have narrowed New Delhi’s foreign policy space. India is still trying to convince Washington that it remains a reliable partner.
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