Türkiye’s annual consumer price inflation fell to 29.73% in September from 31.51% in August, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) said on Monday, dropping below 30% for the first time since November 2021. Consumer prices rose 1.84% month-on-month, below the 2.18% average forecast of economists polled by AA Finans, whose estimates ranged from 1.90% to 2.60%.
Domestic producer prices rose 2.07% in September, with annual producer inflation at 27.38%. The independent Inflation Research Group (ENAG), whose figures are consistently higher than official data, put monthly inflation at 2.10% and annual inflation at 46.61%.
Food prices fall, housing and transport rise
Among the three main expenditure groups with the highest weights, food and non-alcoholic beverages fell 0.20% on the month and rose 27.62% annually. Transport prices rose 2.79% month-on-month and 35.10% annually, while housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose 2.71% on the month and 39.99% annually. Prices rose in 133 of the 174 sub-categories tracked, fell in 35 and were unchanged in six.
“Without the war, inflation would be 7 points lower”
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said that “disinflation is spreading across the board except for transport.” He said food inflation fell 8.4 percentage points from a year earlier to 27.6%, education inflation fell 17.5 points to 48.6% with the help of rule-based regulations, and annual rent inflation fell 27.8 points to 41.3%, adding that leading indicators point to a continued decline in rent inflation.
Şimşek said the government had gradually phased out the sliding-scale fuel tax mechanism for gasoline after diesel to limit the impact of rising oil prices, and that, according to central bank calculations, inflation would have been 7 percentage points lower this year without the war. He said easing inertia in services inflation, particularly rent and education, and fading commodity price pressures would support disinflation in 2027.
Because rent increases are capped at the 12-month average consumer inflation rate, the maximum increase for residential and commercial leases renewed in October is 31.49%.
