According to indicators released by the New York Fed, U.S. consumers’ one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9% in September, reaching their highest level since May 2023.
Alongside the one-year expectation, which stood at 3.6% in August, the three-year inflation expectation also rose from 3.2% to 3.3%. The five-year expectation remained unchanged at 3%.
Price and spending estimates rise
Households expect spending to increase by 5.5% over the next 12 months. The rate, which represents a 0.3 percentage-point increase from August, reached its highest level since May 2023.
Consumers forecast that gasoline prices will rise by 4.8%, food prices by 5.5% and rents by 6.8% over the next year. Expectations for increases in the cost of a university education also rose to 7.5%.

Households’ financial and employment expectations
Households said their financial situation had worsened compared with a year earlier and that they were experiencing greater difficulty accessing credit.
By contrast, expectations for the labor market generally improved. Consumers’ estimated probability of losing their jobs fell to 13.5%, its lowest level since December 2024.
Expectations for the probability that a person who loses their job will find a new one rose to 46.1%.