The US issued a message defending freedom of navigation after the Iran-backed Houthi group announced it would target ships reportedly belonging to Israel in the Red Sea. The group declared a "complete and total ban" on Israeli-linked maritime traffic in the Red Sea.
Houthi spokesperson Yahya Seri stated that ships identified as Israeli are considered legitimate targets in the Red Sea. This announcement has heightened tensions in this strategically critical waterway for maritime transport from the Middle East to Asia.
Response from Washington
A US State Department spokesperson condemned the actions taken by Iran and Houthi proxies as unacceptable. The spokesperson emphasized that such moves further disrupt global supply chains and affirmed that Washington will continue working with its partners to safeguard freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
The Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait are vital routes for transporting Middle Eastern oil to Asia. Therefore, any disruption in the region poses a direct risk to energy shipments and global trade.
Experts warn of escalation risks
Security expert Edmund Fitton-Brown noted that the Houthis are currently acting with strong rhetoric. The former UK ambassador to Yemen assessed that these moves aim to leverage sensitivity in the US public and cause market fluctuations.
According to Fitton-Brown, ongoing coordination between the US and Israel and increased provocative actions by Iran make it difficult for these initiatives to achieve their intended effect. However, if the Houthi group fully resumes attacks on ships in the Red Sea, international outrage could grow, potentially triggering Israeli and US strikes on Sana'a and Hudaydah.
The expert added that such a scenario could lead to a broader conflict, though military superiority would likely favor the US and its allies.
The Ethiopia factor
The report highlighted that developments along the Red Sea corridor also put pressure on the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, the region's most populous country, despite being landlocked, is an important US counterterrorism partner.
Addis Ababa-based researcher Blen M. Diriba described Ethiopia as a strategic balancing element due to its proximity to the Red Sea corridor. Diriba emphasized that the sphere of influence stretching from Iran to Sudan forms a security belt that includes the Horn of Africa, with Ethiopia at its center.
Diriba also pointed out that Ethiopia lies within a security zone where disruptions in Red Sea maritime traffic intersect with the threat posed by Al-Shabaab in Somalia. According to her, the country's stability is a key factor in determining whether these threats will expand.
Cautious assessments on contacts with Iran
Fitton-Brown alleged that Iran provides drone support and military aid to Ethiopia in its internal conflicts. However, these assessments were presented as expert opinions in the source report without verified official evidence.
Diriba characterized Ethiopia's relationship with Iran not as closeness but as strategic caution. She explained that Addis Ababa maintains security partnerships with Washington while keeping diplomatic channels open with Tehran to preserve its maneuvering space.
Fitton-Brown also noted that US-Ethiopia relations are particularly strong in counterterrorism. He added that both countries operate in the region with regard to Somaliland without formal recognition, while protecting their interests.
