The quiet reduction of the US military presence in Eastern Europe became a focal point of security discussions among allies at NATO's Ankara summit. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told local journalists ahead of the summit that several hundred US soldiers deployed to his country during the winter months had been withdrawn and there was no clear indication of their return.
Pevkur stated that the number of US soldiers had fallen below 100, noting that this figure corresponds to one sixth of the tank forces stationed during the winter season. The minister, who had said in May that US forces would remain in Estonia, added that nothing could be guaranteed due to recent uncertainties.
Officials from the Baltic states and Poland say that this withdrawal is a direct result of the Trump administration's unexpected cancellation last month of a planned deployment of around 5,000 troops to Poland. The decision surprised the Warsaw government and many soldiers preparing for the deployment. The cancellation also led to about a thousand troops leaving Lithuania in June without being replaced.
At the NATO summit in Ankara, delegates from the Baltic states and Poland wore badges of the '5 percent club', meeting the alliance's defense spending target. These countries had believed that this status would guarantee them permanent US military support. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte described the summit as a success due to new defense agreements and Europe's increased spending. However, commitments such as the $50 billion long-range missile consortium involving 12 countries will take years to materialize.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby emphasized the 'NATO 3.0' approach at the summit, which argues for prioritizing the rise of China and that Europe must do much more to defend itself. Even leaders skeptical of Trump, such as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, praised the US president for pressuring NATO members to increase spending.
Concerns Behind the Strategic Shift
As concerns grow that Moscow may retaliate after Ukraine's long-range drone and missile strikes on Russian territory, the US is withdrawing from the most vulnerable areas. According to AI-powered analyses, the probability of a deadly conflict between Russia and a NATO member state by the end of 2026 is calculated at 18 percent. Speaking at a Chatham House conference last week, former British Armed Forces Minister Al Carns said the strategic situation is the riskiest period since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.
Nevertheless, most analysts and officials believe it is more likely that Russia will continue its 'hybrid war' campaign rather than direct military action.
In the Middle East, the US also began evacuating personnel from forward bases in mid-January to de-escalate tensions. Most observers believe that following a full withdrawal from Syria and a partial withdrawal from Iraq, the US will no longer keep significant numbers of personnel or equipment in countries like Qatar and Kuwait. The coordination role of the Coalition Air Operations Centre at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar has been moved to the US. Washington now prefers to deploy drones and aircraft in safer areas such as Jordan, Israel, Türkiye and mainland Europe.
Similar dynamics are at play in the Pacific. Traditional allies such as Japan, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines are concerned about the possibility of at least a partial US withdrawal from the region. Some strategists argue that bases in Okinawa and Guam would be too exposed to a Chinese attack. Instead, they propose deploying mobile units equipped with long-range missiles such as ATACMS that could threaten the Chinese mainland and ships.
German Air Force Commander Holger Neumann stated that Europe must increase its purchases of US weapons. German officials believe the greatest threat will be in 2029. However, those who hope that US troops will remain in the region as a 'tripwire' for deterrence are facing the reality that this approach may no longer work.
