Although diplomatic initiatives in the Russia-Ukraine war are continuing, the conditions needed to reach a comprehensive peace agreement have not yet emerged. Maksym Skrypchenko, head of the Ukrainian think tank Center for Transatlantic Dialogue, assessed that visits by U.S. envoys to Moscow and Kyiv had not produced concrete progress in the negotiations.
Skrypchenko’s analysis said that CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit, followed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveling to Moscow and Kyiv, demonstrated Washington’s effort to revive the negotiations. However, these diplomatic contacts produced no concrete result.
Diverging expectations on the battlefield
The analysis said Russia’s pressure on the front had not brought Moscow a victory on a scale that would force Ukraine to accept its terms, while Ukraine lacked the advantage needed to retake the occupied territories in the short term. It therefore identified the decisive factor as not only the military balance but also the parties’ ability to weaken each other’s economic foundations.
Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil sector were assessed as part of an effort to persuade Moscow that mutually limiting attacks would be more beneficial in the face of the war’s costs. Kyiv could take a positive view of options including protecting maritime transport and grain infrastructure in the Black Sea, halting attacks on energy facilities and mutually ending long-range strikes.
Russia, meanwhile, is tying meaningful steps toward a ceasefire to Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Donbas areas under its control. Skrypchenko wrote that Kyiv could not accept this condition and that Moscow believed time was working in its favor.
The analysis said Moscow was focusing on Ukraine’s budget problems, uncertainty over future European financing and upcoming elections in Europe. It said Russia viewed the losses in its oil sector as manageable and believed that destruction caused by the winter and financial restrictions would force Ukraine to retreat.
Prospect of a limited Black Sea ceasefire
Ukraine is preparing for attacks on its electricity grid and gas infrastructure. The analysis said air defense systems and reliable financing were critical to Kyiv’s defense capabilities.
Skrypchenko said the visits by U.S. negotiators had not produced progress and that Moscow had said talks could continue after the parliamentary elections in September. Kyiv and Washington, he added, believed the process could be delayed after the elections by putting forward new justifications.
U.S. efforts to offer economic incentives in exchange for de-escalation also failed to resolve the contradiction between Moscow’s desire to continue the war and its interest in economic gains. This indicated that the political and economic obstacles to reaching a comprehensive agreement remained in place.
The analysis said a planned meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump during the United Nations General Assembly could create an opportunity to discuss the possibility of a limited ceasefire. It said draft resolutions on halting attacks against grain infrastructure in the Black Sea were circulating within the United Nations.
A limited ceasefire in the Black Sea could reduce risks to global food supplies and demonstrate the practical role of the United Nations. Skrypchenko argued that Washington and European Union countries should use sanctions, incentives or a combination of the two to persuade Moscow that another winter would not bring a victory on the battlefield that it had failed to achieve.
