The military tension between the US and Iran has paralyzed maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transit point. According to data from maritime data company Lloyd's List Intelligence, no large vessel has been transmitting AIS signals while passing through the strait's coordinated south route since July 7.
Maritime intelligence platform Windward announced that only 5 ships could be tracked passing through the strait as of Thursday morning. This number is far below the daily average of 130 ship passages before the clashes began. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) also stated that the current low traffic level reflects the cautious stance of companies and the rising threat environment in the region.
Analyst: Iran is jeopardizing all regional traffic
John Bradford, Executive Director of the Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies, stated that Iran's capacity to attack ships in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Sea of Oman puts all regional maritime transport at risk. Bradford warned that as the crisis prolongs, shipping could shift to other ports and routes.
Mutual attack claims
Iran reported that multiple explosions occurred in the south of the country on Thursday. A US official, however, said that US forces were not responsible for these explosions, and no country or group has yet claimed responsibility. In response, Iranian officials and media suggested that Tehran's forces attacked US military positions in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Iraq in retaliation for Washington's attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Calm in oil prices may be temporary
Despite the clashes in the region, oil prices remained largely stable on Friday. Brent crude was trading at $76.37 per barrel as of 02:30 GMT. Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, stated that the relative stability in prices reflects the market's confidence that the situation will calm down, but upward pressure will increase in the coming weeks as reserves deplete. Melek said, 'In line with this, we foresee Brent rising by $10-15 towards the summer months.'
June Goh, Senior Oil Analyst at Sparta Commodities, stated that the greatest price pressure is being seen on refined products, especially diesel, rather than crude oil. Goh said, 'Diesel is being affected by both the supply loss from Middle Eastern refineries and the continuous drone attacks on Russian refineries, and prices have risen well above seasonal norms.'
Asian stock markets open higher
Following a 0.8% rise in US stock markets, Asian equity markets opened positively on Friday. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index gained 1.9%, Seoul's Kospi index 3.6%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index 1.4%.
