China and Russia hold joint air and naval maneuvers near Japan

Bomber aircraft and warships from China and Russia conducted simultaneous air and naval maneuvers near Japan and Taiwan, reinforcing their deterrence message in the Western Pacific.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army and the Russian Armed Forces showcased their military presence in the Western Pacific through simultaneous air and naval operations. A joint strategic air patrol conducted along the Sea of Japan, East China Sea, and the Western Pacific, along with warships passing through the Tsushima Strait, presented a new picture of the regional balance of power.

11th Joint Strategic Flight

According to reports in Chinese state media, the number of joint strategic air patrols conducted by the two countries since 2019 has reached 11. Military expert Zhang Xiufeng, in an assessment to the Global Times, highlighted two key features of this year's sorties.

Zhang first noted the "integrated system approach" incorporating bombers, fighter jets, electronic warfare aircraft, early warning, and aerial refueling platforms. Secondly, he emphasized the high level of combat readiness achieved through live munitions, advanced radar detection, and jamming capabilities.

Immediate Reactions from Tokyo and Seoul

According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the air forces of Japan and South Korea rapidly scrambled their combat aircraft in response to the latest joint patrol. The Tokyo administration confirmed it had tracked Chinese H-6 bombers, Russian Tu-95s, and their escorting fighter jets.

It was stated that some aircraft used the vital Miyako Strait, which opens from the East China Sea into the Western Pacific. Seoul announced that more than 10 Chinese and Russian military aircraft had entered its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) but did not violate its sovereign airspace. This is seen as a calculated move aimed at creating continuous pressure on the legal boundary without crossing the rules of direct engagement.

Simultaneous Naval Passage in the Tsushima Strait

A notable degree of coordination was displayed on the naval front. According to the SCMP, a group consisting of Type 055 and Type 052D class destroyers from the Chinese Navy passed through the Tsushima Strait, heading towards the East China Sea. The Japanese Defense Ministry reported that ships from the Russian Pacific Fleet, which had recently completed a four-day technical visit to the Chinese port of Qingdao, also made their return passage through the same strait shortly before.

The consecutive use of the same waterways and strategic straits by Chinese and Russian ships is interpreted as an unannounced pattern of operational coordination aimed at increasing military activities in Japan's nearby waters and building a joint pressure capability.

Japan's Two-Pronged Strategy

Chinese military sources characterize Japan's reactions around the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning as "exaggerated" responses aimed at legitimizing a larger military buildup. However, the SCMP reported that Tokyo's response is not limited to tactical measures and that it is deepening its security architecture through regional alliances.

Japan's signing of a defense cooperation agreement with Indonesia, discussions on transferring used destroyers to the Philippine Navy, and its full participation with combat units in the "Balikatan" exercises held by the US and the Philippines are seen as an effort to embed itself in a broader trans-Pacific alliance structure stretching from Washington to Jakarta and Manila in the Indo-Pacific.

Structural Vulnerability of the US Fleet

An analysis in the Asia Times highlighted perhaps the most strategic dimension of the deterrence equation by examining the "repair gap" crisis in the US Navy. The report warned that the capacity to repair damaged Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in the Indo-Pacific region falls far short of the requirements of a potential major war with China.

According to data based on a report by The War Zone, which cited intelligence slides from the combat zone, China's shipbuilding capacity stands at 232 times that of the US. With Washington having only eight major military dry docks, a decline in the logistics fleet during a prolonged war of attrition risks transforming the US Navy into more of a "base defense" force rather than an offensive one on the open seas.

A New Deterrence Architecture

According to military and political analyses, the cumulative moves by China and Russia near Japan and Taiwan are part of a long-term deterrence strategy, beyond temporary sorties. The increasing frequency of complex air and naval formations, the use of vital straits, and the symbolic contact between the two navies indicate a "high-intensity" preparation pattern aimed at getting rivals to accept higher risk levels on the front lines.

For Beijing and Moscow, these joint flights serve as training to perfect force integration in potential conflict zones. For Washington and its allies, they are interpreted as a warning that the deterrence balance in the Western Pacific is being reshaped not only by the number of missiles and aircraft but by who possesses the industrial and organizational capacity to sustain their fleet in the air and at sea for the longest time.