Final NYT/Siena polls show Democrats leading all 7 key Senate races

The last New York Times/Siena polls before Tuesday's midterms put Democratic candidates ahead in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska and Iowa, the seven states seen as likeliest to decide control of the Senate.

Democrats are ahead in all seven states seen as likeliest to decide control of the U.S. Senate, according to the final New York Times/Siena polls released Sunday, two days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The Times said the party "gained ground right to the end" of the campaign.

The widest margin is in Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 53% to 42%. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 43%, and in Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins 51% to 45%.

Supporters at a James Talarico rally in Texas (file photo, September 2025)

In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 44%, and in Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Sen. Roger Marshall by the same margin. The races are much tighter in Alaska, where Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 48% to 46%, and in Iowa, where Democrat Josh Turek is ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson 48% to 47%.

"In today's polarized era, there's no precedent for a party to fare this well in so many states that are generally safe wins for the other side," the Times wrote, adding that the only plausible comparisons are the Democratic waves of 2006 and 2008.

Leads like these in Texas and Kansas "would have been unfathomable just a few months ago," the paper wrote. In a separate analysis headlined "The Final Polls Show a Blue Surge. Can We Trust Them?", the Times examined how much weight the numbers can bear. Voters go to the polls on Tuesday.

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