Gallup's 'most important problem' measure gives Democrats an 11-point midterm edge

Democrats lead Republicans by 11 points in Gallup's measure of which party can better handle the country's most important problem, an indicator that has rarely missed in past elections.

With about two weeks to go before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, Gallup's measure of which party Americans think can best handle the problem they consider most important gives Democrats an 11-point lead. Republicans led on the same question in 2022 and 2024.

According to an analysis by Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini, the indicator has an almost perfect record of predicting election outcomes, outperforming pre-election horse-race polls. It pointed to the winner in 2016 and 2024; the parties were tied in 1980, the question was not asked in 2000, and its last outright miss was in 1948.

Voters at a polling place in Iowa

In Gallup's historical series, the party ahead on this measure gained House seats in all eight midterm elections from 1994 to 2022. Ruffini notes that the indicator shows the direction of the vote rather than the size of the gains or which party will control Congress.

Other findings in Gallup's pre-election release point the same way: Democrats lead 51% to 37% on keeping the country prosperous, traditionally a Republican strength, and 59% of Americans describe Republicans as too extreme, compared with 43% for Democrats. In 2022, the order was reversed.

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