Retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski evaluated US foreign policy, the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, and the shifting power dynamics in the international order. Kwiatkowski stated that Washington continues to view military power as the primary tool to maintain its external influence.
According to Kwiatkowski, the US has long responded to its challenges with military pressure. She noted that the effectiveness of this approach has weakened, yet political circles still rely on the same method.
Iran and Ukraine as Part of the Same Strategy
Kwiatkowski emphasized that the issues of Iran and Ukraine are not isolated but should be seen as part of a broader effort. She believes Washington is trying to preserve the international order challenged by emerging centers of power.
The former officer also disagreed with the view that the US is withdrawing from Ukraine and leaving the burden to Europe. She highlighted that military equipment, intelligence support, surveillance capabilities, and logistical aid continue to flow to Ukraine.
Kwiatkowski pointed out that systems like Starlink have become part of Ukraine’s war infrastructure. She said the US might try to reduce some costs but has not abandoned the project and remains strategically involved in the process.
Unrealistic Expectations Regarding Iran
Kwiatkowski stated that American officials have long assumed Iran could be quickly neutralized through military superiority, but this is unrealistic. She noted that Iran’s geography, population, military capacity, and political structure make it extremely difficult to defeat by conventional means.
She explained that air power alone cannot achieve political objectives, and a large-scale ground assault would incur very high costs. Therefore, claims that Iran can be suppressed quickly are not based on serious military analysis.
Israeli Influence and the Persian Gulf Calculations
Kwiatkowski observed that political and ideological actors, rather than military experts, exert pressure on Iran policy. She said Israel’s security concerns and pro-Israel political networks play a significant role in shaping US policy toward Iran.
She added that the goal of this approach is less about invading Iran and more about weakening, isolating, and maintaining economic and political pressure on it. She noted that potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit point in the Gulf, have been factored in for years.
Kwiatkowski said the importance of such a scenario for global energy markets has been known from the start. She emphasized that the real issue is why these risks are considered acceptable.
Support for Ukraine as Part of a Major Rivalry with Russia
Kwiatkowski explained that support for Ukraine is not only about Ukraine itself but part of a broader strategy against Russia. She said influential circles in Washington view Russia as a rival that must be contained and weakened.
She noted that Iran, Russia, and China are often seen as a joint challenge to US global influence. Therefore, support for Ukraine is linked to the goal of maintaining American supremacy.
"Israel of Eastern Europe" Analogy for Ukraine
Kwiatkowski also commented on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statement about turning Ukraine into the "Israel of Eastern Europe." She said this approach points to a highly militarized model that organizes much of society around defense and security.
She explained that such a model requires constant mobilization and carries the risk of shaping society around a permanent state of conflict in the long term. Whether this will bring stability to Ukraine remains an open question.
War Industry and Institutional Functioning
Kwiatkowski responded to the question about recent conflicts being used to test advanced military technologies. She said the decision-making mechanism operates through close relationships among political leaders, military institutions, and defense companies.
She noted that the military-industrial complex’s influence on US foreign policy is enduring. Defense companies profit from conflicts, governments seek strategic advantages, and military institutions gain more resources and new operational roles.
Kwiatkowski said the institutional structure is based on hierarchy and obedience, so individual objections are possible but rare. Once a decision is made, the state apparatus generally moves in the same direction.
Emphasis on a Multipolar Order
Kwiatkowski said countries under pressure can find ways by resisting and adapting. She noted growing efforts to reduce dependence on Western-centered financial systems, diversify economic partnerships, and seek new international cooperation.
She interpreted these developments as signs of a transition to a more multipolar world. According to her, this process has begun and will continue despite attempts to reverse it.
She also said that if new tensions arise between Iran and the US, Iran would have some advantages. Iran’s position would be stronger due to fighting in its own region, benefiting from internal support, and understanding local strategic conditions well.
Meanwhile, the US would again face multiple commitments far from home. She stated the greatest danger is not military weakness but political leaders choosing escalation over accepting strategic realities.
