The 1961 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, China's only formal military alliance, remains in force 65 years later. The treaty stipulates that if one party is subjected to an armed attack, the other will provide assistance.
North Korean Prime Minister Pak Thae Song's three-day visit to Beijing this week was part of the 65th anniversary celebrations of the treaty. The visit once again underscored the importance of the agreement signed on July 11, 1961, by then Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai and North Korean leader Kim Il Sung.
US regional presence strengthens the alliance
The US increasing military cooperation with South Korea and Japan, conducting joint exercises, and strengthening intelligence sharing is bringing Beijing and Pyongyang even closer. China views Tokyo's increased defense spending and the stationing of tens of thousands of American troops in South Korea as an 'encirclement effort'.
North Korea, for its part, regards these steps as war preparations. This leads China to focus on presenting a strong united front with North Korea.
China's stability priority
For China, North Korea's stability is more important than the refugee influx that a potential collapse scenario would trigger and the prospect of a unified Korean peninsula aligned with the US. Beijing wants the North Korean regime, which serves as a buffer along its 1,400-kilometer border, to survive but also to avoid war.
This dilemma causes China to sometimes support United Nations sanctions while opposing steps that could destabilize the regime. At the same time, as its largest trading partner, it continues to provide Pyongyang with an economic lifeline.
North Korea's Russia option
North Korea, however, avoids becoming entirely dependent on Beijing. The comprehensive strategic partnership agreement signed with Russia in 2024, which includes a mutual defense clause, expanded Pyongyang's room for maneuver.
While Russia offers North Korean leader Kim Jong Un advantages such as military technology, energy resources, and access to foreign currency, for China this situation is both beneficial and unsettling. The deepening military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang could embolden Kim's nuclear ambitions and create more instability in Northeast Asia, which Beijing views as its backyard.
The future balance
The alliance is not expected to remain the same over the next 65 years. As North Korea becomes more self-confident by deepening its ties with Russia, China is globally stronger but has more to lose from instability on the Korean Peninsula.
The fact that Chinese President Xi Jinping made no mention of nuclear weapons during his last visit to Pyongyang shows that Beijing is softening its criticism to avoid pushing Kim further toward Russia.
While China stands with North Korea against Western hegemony, it must steer Pyongyang away from behaviors that isolate it from the international community. This delicate balance will shape the alliance's future.
