US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will hold talks in Manama, the capital of Bahrain, on the final leg of his Middle East tour. Rubio aims to convince Gulf Arab allies of the preliminary agreement with Iran.
Rubio will meet with Bahraini officials on Thursday and then hold talks with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. Manama hosts the headquarters of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet.
Scope of the Gulf tour
Rubio previously held talks in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, trying to reassure them that the proposed agreement does not offer excessive concessions to Iran. Rubio told reporters in Kuwait, "We will not do anything that undermines the security of our long-standing allies in the region."
However, Gulf states are concerned that Iran gaining excessive benefits would reshape the regional security balance and oil flows. Iran's strikes on some Gulf countries during the US-Israel war have heightened these concerns.
Uncertainties over the draft agreement
Although US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Iran had accepted nuclear inspections "forever," Tehran announced it had not made such a concession in the negotiations. Following the first round of talks that concluded on Monday in Switzerland, the two countries also made contradictory statements regarding financial incentives for Iran, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Israel's parallel war in Lebanon.
The draft agreement does not include a restriction on Iran's ballistic missiles; it also envisions a $300 billion reconstruction fund and includes clauses that could increase Tehran's regional influence and its control over critical oil shipping lanes.
Reservations of Gulf allies
Rubio stated during his Gulf tour that he would not ask regional allies to contribute to the reconstruction fund; however, the memorandum of understanding signed with Iran may require regional countries to bear at least part of the cost.
Some of the US's Gulf allies have privately expressed disappointment over this interim deal, which could pave the way for normalization with Shiite-majority Iran. Sunni monarchies view Iran as their arch-enemy.
In Bahrain specifically, the Shiite-majority population ruled by a Sunni monarchy is concerned that a financially stronger Tehran could stir unrest in the country.
The six GCC countries form the backbone of Washington's security architecture in the Middle East, and any reassessment of their security relationship with the US could significantly impact America's military strategy in the region.
