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Texas GOP redraw may backfire as South Texas House races tighten
Four South Texas congressional districts reshaped in the 2025 Republican redraw, each carried by Donald Trump by about 10 points in 2024, have turned into competitive races as Latino support for the GOP slips ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms.
The congressional map Texas Republicans redrew in 2025 to add GOP seats is producing tighter races than expected in South Texas, where Democrats see a chance to blunt the mid-decade redistricting in the Nov. 3 midterms.
Four majority-Hispanic districts are among the state's most competitive U.S. House contests. Under the new lines, Donald Trump carried each of them by about 10 points in 2024. Three are Democratic-held seats the GOP targeted: District 28, held by Rep. Henry Cuellar; District 34, held by Rep. Vicente Gonzalez; and the open District 35, whose incumbent, Rep. Greg Casar, is running in another district.
Despite those margins, Democratic Senate nominee Beto O'Rourke would have carried the new Districts 28 and 34 in 2018, while Ted Cruz would have won District 35 by less than half a percentage point. The Cook Political Report rates the race between Gonzalez and Republican Eric Flores in District 34 as a toss-up.
Democrats are also on offense in District 15, where Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz faces Tejano musician Bobby Pulido in a redrawn seat that now includes southeastern Hidalgo County and part of the Coastal Bend. Cuellar and Gonzalez are counting on their crossover appeal and the GOP's sagging Latino support, as polls show Latino voters shifting back toward Democrats after their 2024 move to the right.
Republicans, defending a narrow House majority, likely need to hold their existing Texas seats and win the redrawn districts to keep control of the chamber.
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