Israel debates military operation ahead of election

Ahead of Israel’s general election planned for October 27, the possibility of a new military operation against Gaza, Lebanon, Syria or Iran is being debated. Defense Minister Yisrael Katz’s threat of a forceful response to kites and balloons sent from Gaza has increased the political weight of security issues during the election period.

Netanyahu may raise military tensions before Israel’s election

As Israel approaches the general election planned for October 27, the possibility of a new military operation on one of the Gaza, Lebanon, Syria or Iran fronts is being debated nationally. Israeli analysts say the possibility that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could raise military tensions before the election cannot be ruled out.

Polls suggest that Netanyahu could face difficulty forming a government after the election. Analysts assess that security issues carry political importance for the government as competition with the opposition intensifies.

Katz orders tougher response to Gaza

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz said Sunday that he had ordered the implementation of a policy of “no limits on control and zero tolerance” toward kites and balloons sent from Gaza toward settlements in the Negev region.

Katz said that he and Netanyahu had instructed the army to take “decisive steps” to stop the kites and balloons if their launch continued. He said they would be treated like unmanned aerial vehicles regardless of whether they were carrying explosives.

The statement reinforced assessments that the Israeli government could seek a military escalation in Gaza before the election.

Zamir’s position on political decisions becomes a subject of debate

Analyst Ofer Shelah said the next two months would be a genuine test for Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir. According to Shelah, Netanyahu may want the army to draw Israel into new military maneuvers, a possibility that could test Zamir’s position toward political decisions.

Shelah said that in Israel the prime minister is not the sole supreme commander of the armed forces and that this authority belongs to the government or the security cabinet. He said the relationship between the political leadership and the army could not be viewed as a simple hierarchy, adding that the current period was one of the most unusual in Israel’s history.

Shelah also argued that the Netanyahu government had weakened the position of military personnel and that Defense Minister Katz had adopted an approach that created tensions with the authority responsible for directing the army. Arguing that Zamir also bears responsibility for Israel’s operations in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, Shelah claimed that the General Staff’s influence over political decisions had declined.

Examples of military activity during election periods

Analyst Einav Shif said that increased military activity during election campaigns was not a new development in Israel. Shif said the attack on Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 was carried out approximately three weeks before the election and produced an outcome favorable to the government of the time.

Shif recalled that Israel’s Operation Cast Lead in Gaza ended one month before the 2009 election, while the 2014 attack on Syria took place after parliament was dissolved. Shif said that some figures within the army rejected claims at the time that the operations had political aims.

Shif said that amid the current crisis of confidence, the army was trying to show that it was not a party to events. He argued that presenting military recommendations as indisputable facts could silence the opposition and a significant portion of the media.

Alert and preparations on multiple fronts

Military analyst Amos Harel said that Israel was keeping the Syria front on the agenda alongside Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank. Harel argued that Netanyahu and Katz made threatening statements every week against multiple adversaries, and that this served not only deterrence but also created a constant sense of emergency.

The Israeli army said Sunday that Chief of Staff Zamir had visited Palmachim Air Base in central Israel. Zamir said the army was on alert and prepared for both defensive and offensive action on all fronts.