Texas Senate race remains a toss-up as early voting continues

The race for Texas' U.S. Senate seat between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remains within a few points in recent polls as early voting continues ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

The contest for Texas' U.S. Senate seat is one of the tightest races of the 2026 midterms. An Emerson College survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted Oct. 17-19 showed Democrat James Talarico at 49% and Republican Ken Paxton at 48%, while a Fox News poll had the two tied at 49%.

The RealClearPolitics polling average for Oct. 8-21 gave Talarico a 1.5-point edge, 48.4% to 46.9%, and Decision Desk HQ rates the race a toss-up. In a Marist poll, 53% of likely voters said they expect Paxton to win regardless of whom they support.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks at AmericaFest in December 2025

Paxton, the state's attorney general, defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a May 26 runoff with 63.8% of the vote after a late endorsement from President Donald Trump. His tenure has been shadowed by legal and ethics controversies, including his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House, which ended in acquittal in the state Senate.

Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico at a campaign event in September 2026