Times/Siena poll: Latino voters now favor Democrats by 30 points

Latino voters favor Democrats over Republicans by 30 percentage points ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms, according to a New York Times/Siena poll, a sharp reversal from the gains President Donald Trump made with the group in 2024.

Latino voters now favor Democrats over Republicans by 30 percentage points heading into the Nov. 3 midterm elections, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, signaling an erosion of the gains President Donald Trump made with the group in 2024.

The Times described Latinos as "the most important swing voters of the 2020s," comparing them to the soccer moms candidates courted in the 1990s and the white working-class voters they competed for in the 2010s.

The survey was conducted by phone Oct. 12-19 among 3,494 voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.

A reversal from 2024

Voters wait to cast their ballots in the U.S. (file photo)

Trump won about 48% of Latino voters in 2024, according to the Pew Research Center, helping fuel his return to the White House. The new poll suggests those gains may have been narrower and less durable than expected, though Democrats have not fully regained the Hispanic support they enjoyed a decade ago.

Hispanic voters make up at least 20% of registered voters in nearly two dozen competitive House districts across Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania and Texas, and the shift could also shape Senate contests, including in Texas.

Earlier surveys have found that the cost of living is the top concern for Latino voters, ranking well ahead of immigration.